Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:14:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf3a…fbfd sports 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$3,561 (+2%) realized +$3,561 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%52W / 86L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,543per market
Trades / day72.2pace
Fees−$3,755est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$30,947
other 3% −$2,976
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-37.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -33.9% -40.2% 34% 32% -42.9%
≤30d 138 -31.4% -37.9% 38% 37% -28.6%
≤90d 138 -31.4% -37.9% 38% 37% -28.6%
all 138 -31.4% -37.9% 38% 37% -28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.9% 37% -28.6%
10% -43.9% 33% -35.5%
15% ← realistic here -49.3% 28% -41.7%
20% -54.3% 18% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$1,387) neutral
Persistence
early -31% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$564 vs −$735 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,561
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses52 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$3,755
Open positions0
Markets (closed)138 / 138
History coverage20d
Avg bet$1,543
Trades / day72.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 138 Trades
no open positions (60 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $507 +$459 +90%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,980 −$368 -19%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $25 −$5 -19%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $475 +$509 +107%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $611 +$17 +3%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $125 −$12 -10%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $402 +$83 +21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $5,244 −$2,242 -43%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $609 +$551 +90%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $456 +$355 +78%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,418 −$272 -19%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $577 −$314 -54%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $152 +$98 +65%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $303 +$133 +44%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $303 +$132 +43%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $153 −$12 -8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $303 −$15 -5%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $486 +$90 +18%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $607 −$97 -16%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,189 +$330 +28%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,758 −$113 -6%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,826 −$1,550 -85%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $506 +$300 +59%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $658 +$527 +80%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $303 −$121 -40%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $505 +$276 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $254 +$278 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,112 −$1,095 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3,041 −$76 -2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,615 −$319 -20%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,152 −$1,090 -95%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $607 +$345 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $759 −$750 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $202 +$124 +61%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $773 −$732 -95%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $724 −$715 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,902 −$199 -10%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $672 −$664 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,092 −$809 -74%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $305 −$250 -82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $940 +$296 +32%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,767 −$353 -20%
Dota 2: Sadboys vs Selva Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$1 -27%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $407 −$400 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $708 −$700 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2,430 −$894 -37%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,876 −$1,850 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $153 −$11 -7%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $458 −$450 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $329 −$308 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $966 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $1,919 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 22¢ $51 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 25¢ $51 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 22¢ $51 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 22¢ $51 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 12¢ $51 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 10¢ $51 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 35¢ $179 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 48¢ $254 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 29¢ $255 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 26¢ $274 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 39¢ $153 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 35¢ $153 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 40¢ $153 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 33¢ $153 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 30¢ $153 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 19¢ $347 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 100¢ $984 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 55¢ $28 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 47¢ $152 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 44¢ $153 2h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 20¢ $15 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 99¢ $254 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Derrick Lewis 20¢ $37 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 14¢ $6 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 12¢ $13 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 9¢ $4 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Derrick Lewis 21¢ $76 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 27¢ $102 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1485 history records