Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:51:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CF 0xcf3e…3918 sports 126 markets active 0h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$516 (+8%) realized +$291 · open +$225
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%47W / 68L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$675now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$10
14 days−$178
30 days+$515
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$932
other 44% −$180
crypto 0% +$1
tech 0% −$1
weather 0% +$1
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +48.2% +34.0% 57% 57% -8.8%
≤30d 57 +33.2% +20.5% 46% 46% +2.7%
≤90d 107 +13.0% +2.3% 44% 43% -1.2%
all 115 +6.0% -4.1% 41% 40% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 40% -1.5%
10% -13.2% 37% -10.9%
15% -21.6% 36% -19.5%
20% -29.3% 33% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$36 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$675
Realized+$291
Unrealized+$225
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses47 / 68
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions6
Markets (closed)115 / 126
History coverage103d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 53¢ 94¢ $100 $177 +$77 (+77%)
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Brazil 32¢ 74¢ $50 $115 +$65 (+130%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Over 43¢ 80¢ $50 $93 +$43 (+86%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 44¢ 80¢ $50 $90 +$40 (+81%)
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Brazil 52¢ 44¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 +$31 +101%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $33 +$35 +108%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $404 +$193 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 +$19 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $107 +$104 +97%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +246%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$26 +259%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $30 +$31 +101%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$9 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$27 +54%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $121 −$120 -99%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$35 +114%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
France vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $15 +$40 +260%
France leading at halftime? Jun 08 $50 +$22 +43%
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $51 −$13 -26%
France leading at halftime? Jun 04 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Alireza Firouzja win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 04 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 04 $152 −$150 -99%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $30 −$30 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $201 −$200 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $41 −$40 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $20 −$20 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $456 +$427 +94%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $122 −$120 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $20 +$97 +473%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner May 25 $101 +$53 +52%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $153 +$359 +234%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 24 $23 −$22 -98%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) May 23 $129 +$131 +102%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 23 $132 +$113 +86%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner May 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Racing Club de Lens leading at halftime? May 22 $20 +$21 +101%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $253 +$132 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $101 16m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $85 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 11¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 38¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 6h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $51 6h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $101 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 33¢ $20 9h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $61 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $20 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $20 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 35¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $303 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 47¢ $33 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 4d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $51 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $51 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $51 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $210 4d
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $35 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $30 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $25 4d
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $674.78 · official $711.08 · 252 history records