Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf3e…b64a world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%10W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$7
other 24% $0
politics 12% $0
sports 6% $0
economics 5% $0
tech 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -9.6% -18.2% 17% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 12 -9.6% -18.2% 17% 0% -11.0%
all 32 -3.7% -12.8% 31% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 0% -10.2%
10% -21.2% 0% -18.8%
15% -28.8% 0% -26.6%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses10 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage268d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $3 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $51 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $20 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $39 −$2 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $23 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $22 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $19 +$2 +8%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $12 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $26 −$6 -22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $57 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $29 $0 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 19 $2 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $2 $0 -6%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 12 $27 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $38 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Sep 28 $1 $0 +2%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Sep 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 24 $2 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in September? Sep 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 22 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $25 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $25 1h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $3 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $20 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $20 21d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $20 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $20 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $10 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $23 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 38¢ $23 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 72¢ $22 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 72¢ $22 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 73¢ $12 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 73¢ $9 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 67¢ $19 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $3 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 25d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 25d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 25d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $11 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $10 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $17 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 51¢ $3 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 51¢ $23 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 54¢ $29 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.28 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records