Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:00:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf3f…2f4c weather 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$34 (+20%) realized +$26 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate29%15W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 81% −$33
crypto 19% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-40.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -31.2% -37.7% 35% 29% -4.5%
≤30d 36 -28.6% -35.4% 28% 25% -36.2%
≤90d 51 -34.5% -40.7% 29% 27% -33.6%
all 51 -34.5% -40.7% 29% 27% -33.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.7% 27% -33.6%
10% -46.4% 22% -40.0%
15% -51.6% 20% -45.8%
20% -56.3% 16% -51.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses15 / 36
Open positions4
Markets (closed)51 / 55
History coverage42d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? Yes 8¢ 50¢ $2 $9 +$8 (+514%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 34¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+2776%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-26%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$8 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$11 +530%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on May 27? May 27 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 29? May 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on May 23? May 23 $4 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 21? May 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 21? May 21 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 20? May 20 $4 −$3 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 12? May 20 $14 −$4 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 20? May 20 $1 −$1 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 20? May 20 $1 +$2 +228%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on May 12? May 12 $9 +$3 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 12? May 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 11? May 11 $5 +$5 +94%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 11? May 11 $5 +$4 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on May 12? May 11 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on May 12? May 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on May 11? May 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 8? May 08 $12 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 8? May 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on May 7? May 07 $4 +$2 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 8? May 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 7? May 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 45m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? SELL Yes 30¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? SELL Yes 37¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.94 · official $13.77 (match) · 122 history records