Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:15:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

CF 0xcf40…47d6 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$42 (-42%) realized −$42 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -95% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -96% what you keep after slip

Net edge-96%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$34per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-95.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	1	-95.3%	-95.7%	0%	0%	-95.7%
≤90d	1	-95.3%	-95.7%	0%	0%	-95.7%
all	1	-95.3%	-95.7%	0%	0%	-95.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-95.7%	0%	-95.7%
10%	-96.2%	0%	-96.2%
15%	-96.5%	0%	-96.5%
20%	-96.9%	0%	-96.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -95% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -95% · $-wt -95% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$44 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage

Net worth$53

Realized−$42

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)1 / 3

History coverage18d

Avg bet$34

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	25¢	24¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	18¢	23¢	$3	$4	+$1 (+30%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	Jun 16	$47	−$44	-95%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?	BUY Yes	25¢	$51	1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$3	12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	SELL Yes	0¢	$2	12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	BUY Yes	6¢	$47	18d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.12 · official $53.12 (match) · 4 history records