Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:25:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf43…b5ae politics 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 257d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$2
politics 23% −$2
other 19% −$3
sports 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 13 -0.0% -9.6% 38% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 14 +0.0% -9.5% 43% 0% -9.8%
all 37 -4.7% -13.8% 32% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 0% -10.2%
10% -22.0% 0% -18.8%
15% -29.5% 0% -26.6%
20% -36.4% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage257d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 24 $42 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $61 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $23 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 22 $59 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $55 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $61 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $39 +$2 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $35 −$4 -12%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $64 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $8 +$1 +7%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 27 $8 $0 +1%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Jan 31 $1 −$1 -49%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Jan 31 $2 $0 -6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Jan 31 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 22 $8 $0 -0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 19 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 18 $7 $0 +1%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 18 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 18 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Oct 17 $13 $0 +1%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 17 $1 $0 +9%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 17 $2 $0 -8%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $45 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 12 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $42 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $8 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $34 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $1 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $36 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $24 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $61 13h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 16h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 16h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 16h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $23 19h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $59 29h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $36 30h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $22 30h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $22 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $55 14d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $15 14d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $4 14d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $43 14d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $61 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 130 history records