Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:57:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CF 0xcf46…6067 other 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$276 (+10%) realized +$277 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate31%5W / 11L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$287
7 days+$277
14 days+$277
30 days+$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$244
sports 2% +$41
world 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-50.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -37.1% -43.1% 36% 29% +50.6%
≤30d 16 -45.0% -50.2% 31% 25% +47.1%
≤90d 16 -45.0% -50.2% 31% 25% +47.1%
all 16 -45.0% -50.2% 31% 25% +47.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.2% 25% +47.1%
10% -55.0% 25% +33.0%
15% -59.3% 25% +20.1%
20% -63.3% 19% +8.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +62% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt +62% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -86% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$6 · ×11.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.22 per $1 lost it wins $5.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$277
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage22d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,190 +$201 +9%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $40 +$50 +126%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -52%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 +$19 +65%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $137 +$59 +43%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 7m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $12 8m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 28¢ $41 47m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 33¢ $98 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 40¢ $29 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $4 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $102 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $46 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $90 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $40 7h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $1,245 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $1,071 7h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $103 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $810 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,113 19h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 19h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 19h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 19h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $29 19h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.04 · official $1.04 (match) · 51 history records