Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:43:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CF 0xcf46…cd5b crypto 142 markets active 2h ago coverage 187d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$830 (+1%) realized +$831 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate80%111W / 27L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$580per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$128
7 days+$161
14 days+$133
30 days+$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$1,237
sports 7% −$498
other 1% +$94
politics 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +6.4% -3.8% 57% 52% +6.9%
≤30d 31 -1.1% -10.5% 55% 48% +1.2%
≤90d 61 -9.3% -18.0% 64% 36% -7.5%
all 138 -3.9% -13.0% 80% 21% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 21% -8.6%
10% -21.3% 12% -17.3%
15% -28.9% 11% -25.3%
20% -35.9% 8% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$1,013) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$44 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

187d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized+$831
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses111 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)138 / 142
History coverage187d
Avg bet$580
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 87¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $271 +$50 +18%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$12 +238%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$22 +216%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $180 +$90 +50%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 3 May 27 $302 +$18 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? May 20 $101 +$8 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12? May 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 11? May 11 $10 +$3 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11? May 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 7? May 07 $51 +$10 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6? May 06 $113 +$70 +62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 6? May 06 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5? May 05 $101 +$10 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 5? May 05 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3? May 03 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 2? May 02 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $103 +$55 +53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $100 +$14 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $278 +$11 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 26? Apr 27 $272 +$6 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $1,556 +$16 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $1,644 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 9? Apr 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $100 −$99 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $170 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 17h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 41h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 41h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $180 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.11 · official $214.11 (match) · 291 history records