Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:25:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf47…5659 world 27 markets active 3h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate48%13W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$1
other 20% $0
politics 13% −$5
crypto 5% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.2% -9.3% 56% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 11 -0.3% -9.8% 55% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 11 -0.3% -9.8% 55% 0% -9.2%
all 27 -2.0% -11.4% 48% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 0% -10.3%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.9%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses13 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage474d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $65 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $32 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -9%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $44 +$3 +6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $66 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 11 $4 $0 -5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Zohran Mamdani gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York C Jun 24 $10 −$3 -29%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? Jun 22 $9 $0 +2%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jun 21 $11 $0 -1%
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $160-170m opening weekend? May 28 $1 $0 +1%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? May 05 $1 $0 -10%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Apr 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,800.00 again by March 31? Mar 24 $13 $0 -0%
Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025? Mar 23 $15 −$2 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $32 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $33 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $32 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $13 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $20 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $21 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $11 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $32 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $8 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $36 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $36 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $2 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $36 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $36 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $33 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $29 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records