Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:22:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf4a…370a sports 188 markets active 5d ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%11W / 177L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$4
politics 23% −$4
other 17% −$4
economics 12% −$1
crypto 10% −$2
culture 7% −$2
world 4% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.9% -11.2% 0% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 3 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 4 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
all 188 -0.7% -10.1% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses11 / 177
Open positions0
Markets (closed)188 / 188
History coverage159d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 188 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $32 $0 -0%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu May 25 $34 $0 -1%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 22 $87 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $89 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 22 $86 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 22 $77 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 22 $128 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 22 $357 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 22 $178 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 22 $40 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $43 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 22 $36 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 22 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 22 $194 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 22 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $68 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 22 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $85 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 21 $185 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 21 $77 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 21 $313 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 21 $163 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 21 $81 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 21 $80 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 21 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 21 $81 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Feb 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 21 $180 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 20 $124 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 20 $84 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 20 $139 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 20 $162 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 20 $58 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 20 $85 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 20 $85 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 19 $129 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 19 $46 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 5d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 95¢ $0 5d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 95¢ $15 5d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 5d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $32 16d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $32 16d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 95¢ $34 24d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 95¢ $34 24d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $34 31d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $35 34d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $39 116d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $39 116d
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 116d
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 116d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $41 116d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $41 116d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $40 116d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $40 116d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? SELL No 97¢ $43 116d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? BUY No 97¢ $43 116d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $37 116d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $37 116d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $39 116d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $39 116d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $38 116d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 96¢ $38 116d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $40 116d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $40 116d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $36 116d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $36 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 659 history records