Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:01:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf4b…0bbc weather 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-14%) realized −$22 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate72%78W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$30
other 31% −$11
weather 20% $0
culture 2% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 63 -2.7% -12.0% 97% 0% -11.9%
≤90d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 97% 3% -6.5%
all 108 -15.6% -23.7% 72% 15% -26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 15% -26.0%
10% -31.0% 14% -33.0%
15% -37.6% 11% -39.5%
20% -43.7% 9% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses78 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)108 / 109
History coverage116d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 20? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 104-105°F on June 20 Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C or below on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C or higher on June 20 Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C or higher on June 18 Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 104°F or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 36°C or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 11 Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes $19 2h
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes $18 2h
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes $20 2h
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes $18 2h
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes $20 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 28h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 104-105°F on June 20 BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C or higher on June 20 BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C or higher on June 18 BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.95 · official $9.95 (match) · 194 history records