Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:48:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcf4e…587a
sports · 219 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$38 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$42 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$100
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses209 / 9
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)218 / 219
History coverage99d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 1 History 218 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Tunisia (-2.5) Sweden 98¢ 98¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: FC Nantes (-2.5) Olympique de Marseille 99¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5) Brighton & Hove Albion FC 97¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-2.5) May 27 $177 +$3 +2%
Spread: Brentford FC (-2.5) May 24 $100 +$3 +3%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5) May 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Valencia CF (-2.5) May 23 $100 +$3 +3%
Spread: Elche CF (-2.5) May 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Spread: SC Heerenveen (-2.5) May 21 $100 +$2 +2%
Spread: FC Groningen (-2.5) May 21 $100 +$1 +1%
Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5) May 20 $264 +$2 +1%
Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-2.5) May 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-2.5) May 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Spread: Paris FC (-2.5) May 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Spread: Girona FC (-2.5) May 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Spread: Go Ahead Eagles (-2.5) May 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5) May 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Spread: Rio Ave FC (-2.5) May 16 $100 +$1 +0%
Spread: Gaziantep FK (-2.5) May 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Spread: Heart of Midlothian FC (-2.5) May 16 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Falkirk FC (-2.5) May 16 $151 +$2 +1%
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5) May 13 $270 +$1 +0%
Spread: Leeds United FC (-2.5) May 11 $245 +$5 +2%
Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5) May 11 $209 +$18 +8%
Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5) May 09 $215 +$6 +3%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 07 $213 +$8 +4%
Spread: Fortuna Sittard (-2.5) May 05 $50 $0 +1%
Spread: Angers SCO (-2.5) May 05 $50 $0 +1%
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5) May 05 $50 +$1 +1%
Spread: Elche CF (-2.5) May 05 $50 +$1 +2%
Spread: Queens Park Rangers FC (-2.5) May 02 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Oxford United FC (-2.5) May 02 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Norwich City FC (-2.5) May 02 $50 $0 +1%
Spread: Sheffield United FC (-2.5) May 02 $50 +$1 +1%
Spread: Burnley FC (-2.5) May 02 $50 $0 +1%
Spread: FC Nantes (-2.5) May 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: FK Shakhtar Donetsk (-2.5) May 01 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5) May 01 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-2.5) May 01 $50 $0 +1%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5) May 01 $109 $0 +0%
Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-2.5) Apr 26 $50 +$1 +2%
Spread: NEC (-2.5) Apr 26 $50 +$1 +1%
Spread: Moreirense FC (-2.5) Apr 25 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Antalyaspor (-2.5) Apr 25 $50 +$1 +1%
Spread: Fortuna Sittard (-2.5) Apr 25 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5) Apr 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-2.5) Apr 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Spread: Stade Brestois 29 (-2.5) Apr 25 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-2.5) Apr 25 $50 $0 +1%
Spread: Kasımpaşa SK (-2.5) Apr 24 $50 +$1 +1%
Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-2.5) Apr 23 $53 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 97% −$43
other 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Tunisia (-2.5) BUY Sweden 98¢ $100 1h
Spread: Australia (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 99¢ $100 7h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Brazil 99¢ $100 34h
Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-2.5) BUY Crystal Palace FC 98¢ $177 18d
Spread: Brentford FC (-2.5) BUY Liverpool FC 97¢ $100 21d
Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5) BUY Brighton & Hove Albion FC 97¢ $100 21d
Spread: Valencia CF (-2.5) BUY FC Barcelona 97¢ $100 22d
Spread: Elche CF (-2.5) BUY Girona FC 99¢ $100 22d
Spread: SC Heerenveen (-2.5) BUY FC Utrecht 98¢ $100 23d
Spread: FC Groningen (-2.5) BUY AFC Ajax 99¢ $100 24d
Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5) BUY Aston Villa FC 99¢ $164 24d
Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5) BUY Aston Villa FC 99¢ $100 25d
Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-2.5) BUY Chelsea FC 98¢ $100 26d
Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-2.5) BUY Manchester City FC 98¢ $100 26d
Spread: Paris FC (-2.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 99¢ $100 27d
Spread: Girona FC (-2.5) BUY Club Atlético de Madrid 99¢ $100 27d
Spread: Go Ahead Eagles (-2.5) BUY NEC 99¢ $100 28d
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5) BUY Manchester United FC 99¢ $100 28d
Spread: Gaziantep FK (-2.5) BUY Rams Başakşehir FK 97¢ $100 28d
Spread: Rio Ave FC (-2.5) BUY Casa Pia AC 99¢ $100 28d
Spread: Falkirk FC (-2.5) BUY Rangers FC 99¢ $51 29d
Spread: Falkirk FC (-2.5) BUY Rangers FC 99¢ $100 29d
Spread: Heart of Midlothian FC (-2.5) BUY Celtic FC 100¢ $100 29d
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5) BUY Manchester City FC 100¢ $250 32d
Spread: Leeds United FC (-2.5) BUY Tottenham Hotspur FC 98¢ $245 34d
Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5) BUY Olympique Lyonnais 92¢ $209 34d
Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5) BUY Liverpool FC 97¢ $215 37d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) BUY FC Bayern München 96¢ $213 38d
Spread: Angers SCO (-2.5) BUY AJ Auxerre 99¢ $50 42d
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5) BUY AFC Bournemouth 99¢ $50 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 20 -3.6% -12.8% 95% 0% -12.2%
≤90d 165 -3.4% -12.6% 95% 0% -10.0%
all 218 -2.2% -11.6% 96% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 0% -9.9%
10% -20.0% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.64 · official $99.64 (match) · 513 history records