Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:15:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CF 0xcf54…bbfe crypto 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$2,545 (-13%) realized −$2,545 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate74%86W / 31L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$3,755
sports 9% +$974
other 0% −$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +75.9% +59.1% 100% 100% +60.1%
≤30d 2 +75.9% +59.1% 100% 100% +60.1%
≤90d 117 +4.3% -5.7% 74% 38% -23.4%
all 117 +4.3% -5.7% 74% 38% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 38% -23.4%
10% -14.7% 34% -30.7%
15% -22.9% 29% -37.4%
20% -30.5% 23% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$308 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$2,545
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses86 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions5
Markets (closed)117 / 122
History coverage69d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 61¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 67¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 59¢ 58¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Athletics 53¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 53¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 15 $7 +$6 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 12 $207 +$166 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 12 $413 +$332 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 12 $260 +$289 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 12 $414 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 12 $591 +$667 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 12 $1,469 −$1,469 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 12 $929 −$900 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 12 $364 +$305 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 12 $311 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 12 $726 −$700 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 12 $1,639 +$734 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 12 $312 +$225 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 12 $1,340 +$486 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 12 $206 +$127 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 12 $526 −$509 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 12 $829 −$800 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 12 $840 +$486 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 12 $1,024 −$1,011 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 12 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 12 $1,564 −$1,500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 12 $518 −$447 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 12 $222 +$809 +365%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 12 $414 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 12 $747 −$728 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 12 $405 +$370 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 12 $14 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 12 $361 +$357 +99%
LoL: Team Phoenix vs SU Esports (BO3) - TCL Regular Season May 12 $1 $0 +2%
LoL: ROSSMANN Centaurs vs Team Orange Gaming (BO3) - Prime League 1st May 12 $1 $0 +6%
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Esprit Shōnen (BO3) - LFL Playoffs May 12 $1 $0 +23%
Dota 2: MODUS vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - European Pro League Group B May 12 $2 +$2 +76%
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Seaso May 12 $1 +$3 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 12 $237 +$150 +63%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B May 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will FC Arouca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora end in a draw? May 06 $1 +$1 +40%
Will América FC win on 2026-04-18? May 06 $1 +$1 +75%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-04-18? May 06 $2 +$3 +144%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 18? May 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Avaí FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-19? Apr 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 17 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 17 $6 +$5 +89%
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 16 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -95%
XRP Up or Down - April 14, 3PM ET Apr 15 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 53¢ $3 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 53¢ $2 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 67¢ $3 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 61¢ $3 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 59¢ $3 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 56¢ $7 33d
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY New York Yankees 57¢ $3 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $61 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $3 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $10 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $20 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $19 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $80 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $4 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $110 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $10 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $39 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $14 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $4 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $97 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $97 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $97 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $97 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $97 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $250 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $207 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $207 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.18 · official $14.18 (match) · 649 history records