Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:49:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf58…4996 crypto 86 markets active 7d ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-4%) realized +$0 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate60%46W / 31L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day36.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% +$5
crypto 29% −$2
other 20% +$8
world 15% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 77 +9.6% -0.8% 60% 56% -5.9%
≤90d 77 +9.6% -0.8% 60% 56% -5.9%
all 77 +9.6% -0.8% 60% 56% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.8% 56% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -10.3% 53% -14.9%
15% -19.0% 49% -23.1%
20% -26.9% 47% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses46 / 31
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 86
History coverage5d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day36.4
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $21 $11 −$10 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 -30%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $14 −$13 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 +$2 +13%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3 −$2 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $14 −$4 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$7 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +25%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3 +$6 +235%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will A Jun 17 $3 +$6 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -37%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $4 −$3 -85%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $2 +$3 +206%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +76%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 +$2 +86%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +114%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 $0 +7%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $3 −$2 -60%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$3 +119%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8 +$7 +86%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 +$2 +197%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4 +$2 +67%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 7d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $11 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $2 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 9d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $2 9d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $2 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 9d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $5 9d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $7 9d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $1 9d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 9d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 13.5 Total Corners SELL Over 2¢ $0 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $19 9d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 62¢ $10 9d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 14¢ $1 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.01 · official $8.08 · 210 history records