Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:14:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf5c…ec1c politics 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,878 (+2%) realized +$1,878 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate22%26W / 91L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$872per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$520now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$13
14 days−$17
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$58
other 30% +$2,319
culture 8% −$7
sports 7% −$377
world 1% −$3
crypto 1% −$5
tech 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 48 +3.4% -6.4% 10% 2% -5.6%
all 117 -0.8% -10.2% 22% 9% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 9% -7.8%
10% -18.8% 9% -16.7%
15% -26.7% 9% -24.7%
20% -33.8% 9% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,238) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +15% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$10 · ×10.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.15 per $1 lost it wins $3.15
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$520
Realized+$1,878
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses26 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage138d
Avg bet$872
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $520 $520 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,560 −$1 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $414 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $560 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $5,404 −$6 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $3,127 −$3 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $825 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $828 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,501 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,100 −$3 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $1,036 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $836 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $269 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 02 $375 +$1 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $276 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $345 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,783 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $2,082 −$3 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $2,369 −$3 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,810 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $872 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $911 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 04 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $411 −$1 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $485 +$1 +0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $2,405 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $1,893 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $427 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $898 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $917 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $2,633 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $893 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $728 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $1,485 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $1,303 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $137 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $1,315 +$2,338 +178%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 06 $75 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 23? Mar 23 $70 −$7 -10%
West Ham United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-02-14? Mar 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $414 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $414 2h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $387 20h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $387 22h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $414 23h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $414 26h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $520 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $559 4d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $560 5d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $826 5d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $827 5d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $910 5d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $911 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $823 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $825 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $827 7d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $828 7d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $759 11d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $761 11d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $740 12d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $741 13d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $815 15d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $817 15d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $873 15d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $875 15d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $650 15d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $651 16d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $835 16d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $836 16d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $385 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $519.58 · official $519.58 (match) · 366 history records