Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:29:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CF 0xcf5f…b574 sports 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 441d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,110 (-5%) realized −$2,109 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate60%61W / 40L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$436per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$294est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$858now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$489
7 days+$383
14 days+$271
30 days+$305
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$1,328
other 7% −$262
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +16.8% +5.6% 86% 71% -4.8%
≤30d 26 +11.2% +0.6% 77% 65% -7.1%
≤90d 58 -4.1% -13.3% 59% 53% -13.6%
all 101 +0.1% -9.4% 60% 56% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 56% -11.8%
10% -18.1% 48% -20.2%
15% -26.0% 32% -27.9%
20% -33.2% 22% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$546) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$172 vs −$302 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

441d coverage
Net worth$858
Realized−$2,109
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses61 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$294
Open positions4
Markets (closed)101 / 105
History coverage441d
Avg bet$436
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $358 $365 +$8 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $230 $246 +$16 (+7%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 39¢ 42¢ $200 $218 +$18 (+9%)
Will Umar Nurmagomedov be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 7¢ $71 $29 −$42 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $403 +$110 +27%
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw Jun 21 $344 +$111 +32%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $311 +$268 +86%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $299 +$73 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $199 +$100 +50%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $429 −$428 -100%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $392 +$38 +10%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $339 +$53 +16%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $316 +$23 +7%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,297 −$983 -76%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $1,007 +$274 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $805 +$194 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $701 +$129 +18%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $479 +$422 +88%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $254 −$250 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $211 +$45 +21%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $748 −$95 -13%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $242 +$66 +27%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $120 +$121 +101%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $77 +$43 +55%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $399 −$322 -81%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 06 $153 −$71 -47%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $718 +$59 +8%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Mai May 30 $289 +$104 +36%
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menery May 24 $523 +$118 +23%
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Ray J vs. Supah Hot Fire May 24 $421 +$103 +24%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Merab Dvalishvili be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31 May 17 $19 −$1 -5%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $121 −$120 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 16 $489 −$484 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Nicolle Caliari vs. Shauna Bannon (Women's Strawweigh May 16 $333 +$145 +43%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $1,810 −$1,318 -73%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $405 −$34 -8%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $407 +$538 +132%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 10 $546 +$297 +54%
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims) May 09 $404 −$400 -99%
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P May 09 $703 +$101 +14%
UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $604 +$146 +24%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $213 −$210 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Mai May 02 $272 −$266 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Prelim May 02 $102 +$115 +113%
UFC Fight Night: Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland (Heavyweight, Main C May 02 $606 −$600 -99%
Madrid Open: Joao Fonseca vs Rafael Jodar Apr 26 $467 +$355 +76%
UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Pre Apr 26 $141 −$139 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Davey Grant vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti (Bantamweight, Apr 26 $72 −$71 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Montel Jackson (Bantamweight, Main Apr 26 $600 −$592 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Michelle Montague (Women's Bant Apr 25 $500 +$121 +24%
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car Apr 19 $400 −$37 -9%
UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Ma Apr 19 $486 +$370 +76%
UFC Fight Night: Dennis Buzukja vs. Marcio Barbosa (Featherweight, Pre Apr 18 $368 +$119 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $361 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 39¢ $204 1h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, SELL Navajo Stirling 100¢ $512 1h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Navajo Stirling 78¢ $403 2h
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw SELL Murtazali Magomedov 100¢ $455 2h
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw BUY Murtazali Magomedov 75¢ $344 21h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $236 22h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $311 36h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 80¢ $299 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $199 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $429 5d
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 91¢ $392 5d
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken SELL Botic van de Zandschulp 100¢ $392 5d
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 86¢ $339 5d
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 93¢ $316 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 20¢ $315 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $1,297 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 100¢ $1,281 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $1,007 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Mauricio Ruffy 100¢ $999 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $805 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 100¢ $829 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 84¢ $701 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 28¢ $200 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 27¢ $200 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $278 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 48¢ $254 10d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Washington Nationals 82¢ $211 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 71¢ $151 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 32¢ $78 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $857.68 · official $857.93 (match) · 284 history records