Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:39:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf62…98e2 crypto 109 markets active 4d ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (2950 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,888 (+14%) realized +$1,888 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +249% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +169% what you keep after slip
Net edge+169%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate40%69W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day2950.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$382
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2950 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+216.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 174 +249.3% +216.0% 40% 26% -13.0%
≤30d 174 +249.3% +216.0% 40% 26% -13.0%
≤90d 174 +249.3% +216.0% 40% 26% -13.0%
all 174 +249.3% +216.0% 40% 26% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2950.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +216.0% 26% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here +185.8% 20% -21.3%
15% +158.2% 16% -28.9%
20% +132.8% 15% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +249% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +501% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
27.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$21 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$1,888
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses69 / 105
Open positions0
Markets (closed)174 / 109
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$121
Trades / day2950.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 174 Trades
no open positions (66 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$63 -7292%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$11 -1453%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$93 -11489%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$26 -3721%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$22 -3562%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$5 -697%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$39 -5453%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$25 -3821%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$42 -5671%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$53 -7420%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$10 +2277%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$32 -4940%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$19 -3469%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$36 -6197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 29 $0 −$127 -27286%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$58 -10976%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$29 -5803%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 29 $0 −$19 -4214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 29 $0 −$22 -5460%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 29 $0 −$15 -2968%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 29 $0 −$43 -9126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $0 −$52 -11426%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 29 $0 −$53 -11847%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 29 $0 −$14 -4902%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 29 $0 −$32 -10989%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 29 $0 −$5 -1835%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 29 $0 −$39 -12229%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $0 −$15 -7590%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 29 $0 −$8 -2894%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$2 +1190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 29 $0 −$113 -56921%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 29 $0 −$1 -1676%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 29 $0 −$15 -16480%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 29 $0 −$53 -46051%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $0 −$64 -80045%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$60 +798592%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$53 +51230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$47 +104761%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$24 +145172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$73 +959963%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$38 +31611%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$51 +48809%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 29 $55 −$53 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$103 +694824%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$25 +322829%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$39 +64673%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 29 $0 −$15 -6707%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$74 +1729086%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$74 +225155%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.16 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records