trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -1.7% | -11.0% | 0% | 0% | -11.3% |
| ≤30d | 16 | +4.7% | -5.3% | 44% | 25% | -8.9% |
| ≤90d | 18 | +3.8% | -6.1% | 44% | 28% | -8.6% |
| all | 20 | -1.6% | -10.9% | 45% | 25% | -8.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.9% | 25% | -8.9% |
| 10% | -19.5% | 20% | -17.6% |
| 15% | -27.2% | 10% | -25.6% |
| 20% | -34.4% | 5% | -32.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | $45 | $45 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 96¢ | 95¢ | $38 | $38 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 95¢ | 95¢ | $33 | $33 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $33 | $33 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | Jun 28 | $26 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 28 | $31 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 28 | $59 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | Jun 26 | $29 | $0 | -1% |
| Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? | Jun 26 | $40 | $0 | -0% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Jun 26 | $50 | −$4 | -7% |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | +35% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 14 | $25 | +$4 | +18% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 14 | $31 | +$2 | +5% |
| Canadiens vs. Hurricanes | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | +42% |
| Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | May 29 | $1 | $0 | -23% |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | May 29 | $2 | −$1 | -30% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? | May 29 | $3 | +$1 | +30% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | May 29 | $12 | $0 | -2% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | May 29 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 15? | May 29 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? | May 12 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | May 12 | $2 | +$2 | +92% |
| Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? | Feb 28 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Zama FDV above $4B one day after launch? | Feb 28 | $2 | $0 | +1% |