Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:28:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf64…921e other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$5
politics 26% −$2
crypto 21% +$6
world 17% +$2
finance 1% +$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.7% -11.0% 0% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 16 +4.7% -5.3% 44% 25% -8.9%
≤90d 18 +3.8% -6.1% 44% 28% -8.6%
all 20 -1.6% -10.9% 45% 25% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 25% -8.9%
10% -19.5% 20% -17.6%
15% -27.2% 10% -25.6%
20% -34.4% 5% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)20 / 24
History coverage148d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 88¢ 88¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 95¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 28 $26 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 28 $31 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 28 $59 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $29 $0 -1%
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? Jun 26 $40 $0 -0%
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 26 $50 −$4 -7%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 14 $1 $0 +35%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $25 +$4 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $31 +$2 +5%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 29 $1 $0 -23%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $2 −$1 -30%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $3 +$1 +30%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $12 $0 -2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 29 $2 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 29 $1 $0 +6%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? May 12 $2 +$2 +92%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Zama FDV above $4B one day after launch? Feb 28 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $33 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $38 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $33 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 88¢ $45 1h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 88¢ $25 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $31 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $58 1h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 89¢ $26 46h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $59 46h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $31 46h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 93¢ $29 46h
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? SELL No 94¢ $39 46h
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 86¢ $47 46h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $29 13d
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? BUY No 94¢ $18 13d
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? BUY No 94¢ $22 13d
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 13d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 88¢ $2 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $30 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $33 13d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 70¢ $1 29d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 64¢ $1 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $31 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $25 29d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 73¢ $1 29d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 29d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? SELL No 100¢ $3 29d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 29d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $2 29d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 93¢ $1 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.88 · official $148.88 (match) · 76 history records