Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:16:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CF 0xcf6b…64e3 other 106 markets active 3d ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$47 (-0%) realized −$48 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%8W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$310per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$54
politics 19% −$7
sports 10% +$13
economics 5% −$2
culture 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$2
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -6.3% -15.2% 12% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 84 -4.4% -13.5% 6% 2% -9.7%
all 104 -2.3% -11.6% 8% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 5% -9.7%
10% -20.1% 5% -18.3%
15% -27.8% 5% -26.2%
20% -34.9% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$503) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×6.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$249
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses8 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)104 / 106
History coverage100d
Avg bet$310
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $176 $176 +$1 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $130 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $73 $73 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $286 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $602 −$1 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $41 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 04 $87 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $42 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $69 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $110 +$1 +1%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 31 $36 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $63 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 29 $58 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 24 $315 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $335 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? May 22 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 18 $251 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 17 $280 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $254 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 16 $254 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $779 −$1 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $253 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $258 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 10 $272 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 10 $278 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 08 $281 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,109 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 04 $543 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $528 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 03 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $549 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $1,085 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $267 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $287 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $275 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $267 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $269 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $276 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 3d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 3d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 4d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 6d
Will Solana reach $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $73 9d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 10d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 10d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $50 11d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $50 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $13 11d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $47 12d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $47 12d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 13d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $176 14d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $60 18d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $60 18d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $41 19d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $41 19d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $60 24d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $60 24d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $56 25d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $56 25d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $32 25d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $32 26d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $42 27d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $42 27d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $36 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $249.24 · official $249.24 (match) · 336 history records