Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:39:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcf6c…7e66
sports · 133 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2,397,525 -127%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,389,166 · open −$8,359
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$80,201
Realized−$2,389,166
Unrealized−$8,359
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses74 / 503
Whale WR (big bets)21%
Est. fees paid−$14,166
Open positions15
Markets (closed)577 / 133
Avg bet$14,212
Trades / day267.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 15 History 577 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,429,650
7 days−$2,419,618
14 days−$2,389,166
30 days−$2,389,166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Daniil Medvedev 95¢ 88¢ $28,360 $26,250 −$2,110 (-7%)
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Adrian Mannarino 54¢ 54¢ $14,070 $14,190 +$119 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Monte 44¢ 44¢ $13,985 $14,143 +$159 (+1%)
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Marcos Giron 49¢ 60¢ $7,618 $9,232 +$1,614 (+21%)
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 71¢ 36¢ $17,740 $8,875 −$8,865 (-50%)
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Nuno Borges 54¢ 80¢ $2,694 $3,957 +$1,263 (+47%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Hanwha Life Esports 48¢ 48¢ $1,206 $1,218 +$13 (+1%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 78¢ 50¢ $1,369 $886 −$483 (-35%)
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 83¢ 78¢ $444 $415 −$29 (-7%)
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Iva Jovic 45¢ 42¢ $314 $297 −$17 (-6%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Golden Knights 47¢ 48¢ $222 $225 +$2 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 18¢ 18¢ $186 $191 +$5 (+3%)
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Sinja Kraus 48¢ 39¢ $195 $158 −$37 (-19%)
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Team Liquid 45¢ 48¢ $110 $117 +$6 (+6%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? No 96¢ 97¢ $47 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Madrid Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Lorenzo Musetti Tallon Griekspoor 18¢ 0¢ $4,218 $0 −$4,218 (-100%)
Ravens vs. Chiefs Ravens 67¢ 0¢ $1,874 $0 −$1,874 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Panna Udvardy vs Kimberly Birrell Kimberly Birrell 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Maddison Inglis 16¢ 0¢ $546 $0 −$546 (-100%)
Celtics vs. Heat Heat 75¢ 0¢ $22,362 $0 −$22,362 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Bucks Bucks 56¢ 0¢ $3,914 $0 −$3,914 (-100%)
RCD Mallorca vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 0¢ $12,705 $0 −$12,705 (-100%)
BMW Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Alex Molcan Denis Shapovalov 57¢ 0¢ $2,200 $0 −$2,200 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 58¢ 0¢ $1,923 $0 −$1,923 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Spurs 3¢ 0¢ $622 $0 −$622 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Madrid Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Lorenzo Musetti Jun 12 $4,218 −$4,218 -100%
Ravens vs. Chiefs Jun 12 $1,874 −$1,874 -100%
Madrid Open: Panna Udvardy vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Celtics vs. Heat Jun 12 $22,362 −$22,362 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Bucks Jun 12 $3,914 −$3,914 -100%
RCD Mallorca vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $12,705 −$12,705 -100%
BMW Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Alex Molcan Jun 12 $2,200 −$2,200 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet Jun 12 $1,923 −$1,923 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 12 $622 −$622 -100%
1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $5,590 −$5,590 -100%
Barcelona Open: Alex de Minaur vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 12 $2,424 −$2,424 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Jun 12 $4,454 −$4,454 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti Jun 12 $8,639 −$8,639 -100%
Pelicans vs. Rockets Jun 12 $2,095 −$2,095 -100%
Will Clube do Remo win on 2026-03-22? Jun 12 $8,555 −$8,555 -100%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Jun 12 $17,112 −$17,112 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoff Jun 12 $5,041 −$5,041 -100%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Daniil Medvedev vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 12 $303 −$303 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jasmine Paolini vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 12 $2,759 −$2,759 -100%
Bulls vs. Hornets Jun 12 $1,957 −$1,957 -100%
Pistons vs. Pacers Jun 12 $85 −$85 -100%
Spurs vs. Pelicans: O/U 238.5 Jun 12 $7,296 −$7,556 -104%
Merida Open Akron: Cristina Bucsa vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $1,893 −$1,893 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 12 $1,492 −$1,492 -100%
Rockets vs. Thunder Jun 12 $5,756 −$5,756 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 12 $3,914 −$3,914 -100%
Jiujiang: Lanlana Tararudee vs Sofya Lansere Jun 12 $252 −$252 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Gael Monfils vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $864 −$864 -100%
Delray Beach Open: Nuno Borges vs Coleman Wong Jun 12 $2,502 −$2,502 -100%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $3,074 −$3,074 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Elena Rybakina vs Elina Svitolina Jun 12 $1,743 −$1,743 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Arthur Gea vs Stan Wawrinka Jun 12 $4,354 −$4,354 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-22.5) Jun 12 $3,066 −$3,066 -100%
Madrid Open: Alycia Parks vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 12 $285 −$285 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08? Jun 12 $79,547 −$79,547 -100%
BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Nicolas Mejia vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 12 $4,409 −$4,409 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Anastasia Potapova vs Niko Jun 12 $3,535 −$3,535 -100%
Credit One Charleston Open, Qualification: Yue Yuan vs Kayla Day Jun 12 $248 −$248 -100%
Rockets vs. Cavaliers Jun 12 $139 −$139 -100%
Raptors vs. Clippers Jun 12 $306 −$306 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs 9INE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Pl Jun 12 $4,927 −$4,927 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $1,185 −$1,185 -100%
76ers vs. Nets Jun 12 $1,981 −$1,981 -100%
LoL: Sentinels vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Lock In Group Stage Jun 12 $3,036 −$3,036 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Ugo Humbert vs Karen Khachanov Jun 12 $4,243 −$4,243 -100%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $4,360 −$4,360 -100%
BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Elias Ymer vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Jun 12 $19,207 −$19,212 -100%
Madrid Open: Dino Prizmic vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 12 $8,339 −$8,339 -100%
Madrid Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alex Michelsen Jun 12 $6,412 −$6,412 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 93% +$154,397
other 7% −$12,078
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $2 1m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $786 1m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $16 4m
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 95¢ $410 5m
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 95¢ $10 6m
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 95¢ $10 6m
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 95¢ $549 6m
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 95¢ $50 6m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $26 6m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $786 7m
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 95¢ $80 7m
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 95¢ $10 7m
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 95¢ $10 7m
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 95¢ $50 7m
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 95¢ $10 7m
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 95¢ $10 7m
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 95¢ $50 7m
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 95¢ $10 7m
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 95¢ $10 7m
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 95¢ $13 7m
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 95¢ $10 8m
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 95¢ $10 8m
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 95¢ $2 8m
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 95¢ $10 8m
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 95¢ $10 8m
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 95¢ $100 8m
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 95¢ $19 8m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $2 9m
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 95¢ $1,438 9m
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 47¢ $18 9m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-78.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 541 -83.9% -85.4% 9% 7% -68.5%
≤30d 577 -75.8% -78.1% 13% 10% -59.8%
≤90d 577 -75.8% -78.1% 13% 10% -59.8%
all 577 -75.8% -78.1% 13% 10% -59.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover267.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -78.1% 10% -59.8%
10% -80.2% 8% -63.6%
15% ← realistic here -82.1% 7% -67.2%
20% -83.9% 6% -70.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80,201.12 · official $80,201.12 (match) · 3500 history records