Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:27:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CF 0xcf72…f7ce other 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 180d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL −$230 (-6%) realized −$359 · open +$129
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%24W / 49L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$739now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$215
7 days+$758
14 days+$798
30 days+$798
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$355
sports 24% −$60
crypto 10% +$611
politics 1% −$30
world 0% −$4
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +32.5% +19.9% 32% 32% +15.3%
≤30d 69 +28.7% +16.5% 35% 35% +14.4%
≤90d 70 +26.9% +14.8% 34% 34% +13.3%
all 73 +24.4% +12.5% 33% 33% +12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.5% 33% +12.2%
10% +1.8% 33% +1.5%
15% -8.1% 30% -8.3%
20% -17.1% 27% -17.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$28 · ×3.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$739
Realized−$359
Unrealized+$129
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses24 / 49
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions4
Markets (closed)73 / 78
History coverage180d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 47¢ 62¢ $400 $527 +$127 (+32%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 84¢ 92¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 39¢ 36¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $81 −$80 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $387 +$616 +159%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $101 +$34 +34%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$33 +161%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $122 −$120 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 19 $153 +$155 +101%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-1 Jun 19 $85 +$278 +327%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $31 +$53 +172%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $203 +$99 +48%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $152 +$52 +34%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 −$14 -98%
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Colombia? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $153 −$153 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $153 −$153 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals Jun 17 $8 +$192 +2400%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 +$45 +442%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$18 +87%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$155 +152%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$11 +105%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 +$37 +365%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 59m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $304 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 45¢ $305 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 7h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 45¢ $203 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 7h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $143 21h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $135 21h
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 24h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 24h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 10¢ $10 29h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 15¢ $10 29h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 32¢ $31 30h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 39¢ $102 32h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 7¢ $5 32h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 33h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY 38¢ $387 37h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 83¢ $53 45h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 45h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 46h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 47h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $122 47h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $10 47h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- SELL 77¢ $308 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $738.78 · official $738.78 (match) · 120 history records