Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:42:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcf73…c54f
tech · 64 markets active 24d ago
0.0score
+$34,404 +594%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$34,428 · open −$25
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge
Chart Positions 3 History 61 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? Yes 84¢ 100¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+19%)
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19? Yes 84¢ 100¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+19%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $46 $48 +$3 (+6%)
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Yes 73¢ 34¢ $35 $16 −$19 (-53%)
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 57¢ 36¢ $23 $15 −$8 (-37%)
Dota 2: OG vs Heroic (BO3) Heroic 46¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Superman be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? Yes $160 $0 −$160 (-100%)
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Yes $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Will Sinners be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? Yes $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will claude-opus-4-6 have the best AI model on May 16, 2026? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Travis Kelce be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year? Yes $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 167m and 177m? Yes $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the Israel–Iran conflict be the #1 searched news on Google this year? Yes 15¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Kanye West / Ye be the #2 searched person on Google this year? Yes 19¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Will PlaqueBoyMax win Streamer of the Year at the 2025 Streamer Awards? Yes 13¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Bad Bunny be the #2 searched person on Google this year? Yes $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Liquid (BO3) MIBR 27¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? Yes $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Luigi Mangione be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Yes $160 $0 −$160 (-100%)
Will Not Like Us by Kendrick Lamar be the #1 searched song on Google this year? Yes $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Kendrick Lamar be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Yes $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Pope Francis be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Passings? Yes $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: QWENTRY vs Team Novaq (BO3) QWENTRY 60¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Wicked: For Good be the second highest grossing movie of 2025? Yes $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Jimmy Kimmel rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? No 43¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 19 $218 −$210 -96%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 16, 2026? May 18 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480? May 18 $50 +$13 +26%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19? May 09 $50 +$10 +19%
Will claude-opus-4-6 have the best AI model on May 16, 2026? May 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? May 09 $50 +$10 +19%
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Timothée Chalamet and Kylie Jenner engaged in 2025? Apr 12 $20 +$1 +6%
D4vd arrested by December 31? Apr 12 $40 +$8 +21%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $480–500 in 2025? Apr 12 $20 +$51 +257%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025? Dec 29 $20 +$25 +124%
Will ExtraEmily win Streamer of the Year at the 2025 Streamer Awards? Dec 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will PlaqueBoyMax win Streamer of the Year at the 2025 Streamer Awards Dec 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Dec 04 $1,179 +$28,429 +2411%
Will Golden by HUNTR/X be the #1 searched song on Google this year? Dec 04 $20 +$21 +106%
Will KPop Demon Hunters be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? Dec 04 $600 +$1,293 +216%
Will Liam Neeson rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 2025? Dec 04 $40 +$13 +34%
Will Hollow Knight: Silksong be the #1 searched game on Google this ye Dec 04 $40 +$17 +43%
Will ARC Raiders be the #1 searched game on Google this year? Dec 04 $20 +$104 +522%
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Dec 04 $320 +$174 +54%
Will Tyler Robinson rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Dec 04 $160 +$867 +542%
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #2 searched person on Google this year? Dec 04 $200 +$1,565 +783%
Will Anora be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? Dec 04 $320 +$3,167 +990%
Will Sydney Sweeney rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 202 Dec 04 $100 +$321 +321%
Will Superman be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? Dec 03 $235 −$231 -98%
Valorant: Fnatic vs FULL SENSE (BO3) Dec 02 $20 +$3 +16%
Valorant: T1 vs ZETA DIVISION (BO3) Dec 02 $20 +$5 +27%
Will Jimmy Kimmel rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Dec 02 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the Israel–Iran conflict be the #1 searched news on Google this y Dec 02 $40 −$40 -100%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on December 1? Dec 02 $20 +$16 +82%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 02 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Not Like Us by Kendrick Lamar be the #1 searched song on Google t Dec 02 $60 −$54 -90%
Will Kanye West / Ye be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Dec 02 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Dec 02 $240 −$240 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for November 23-30 be between Dec 02 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Luigi Mangione be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Dec 01 $160 −$160 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) Nov 30 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Bad Bunny be the #2 searched person on Google this year? Nov 30 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Sinners be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? Nov 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Kanye West / Ye be the #2 searched person on Google this year? Nov 30 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Wicked: For Good be the second highest grossing movie of 2025? Nov 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Travis Kelce be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year? Nov 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 167m and 177m? Nov 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Death Stranding 2: On the Beach win Best Audio Design at the 2025 Nov 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Peak win Best Multiplayer Game at the 2025 Game Awards? Nov 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Pope Francis be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 202 Nov 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Nov 30 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 30 $70 −$70 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Liquid (BO3) Nov 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 53% +$29,751
culture 24% +$4,008
other 17% +$902
sports 4% −$137
world 1% −$80
politics 1% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? BUY No $10 23d
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? BUY No $104 24d
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? BUY No 10¢ $104 24d
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? BUY Yes 57¢ $23 32d
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? BUY Yes 73¢ $35 32d
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480? BUY No 79¢ $50 32d
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 33d
Will claude-opus-4-6 have the best AI model on May 16, 2026? BUY Yes $5 33d
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 16, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 33d
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 34d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $46 34d
Will ExtraEmily win Streamer of the Year at the 2025 Streamer Awards? BUY Yes $20 187d
Will PlaqueBoyMax win Streamer of the Year at the 2025 Streamer Awards BUY Yes 13¢ $20 187d
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? SELL Yes 100¢ $29,608 189d
Will Superman be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? BUY Yes $40 191d
Will Jimmy Kimmel rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? BUY No 43¢ $40 192d
Will Superman be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? BUY Yes $20 192d
Will the Israel–Iran conflict be the #1 searched news on Google this y BUY Yes 15¢ $40 192d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 BUY Yes 41¢ $20 192d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 BUY Yes 38¢ $20 192d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 BUY Yes $20 192d
Will Not Like Us by Kendrick Lamar be the #1 searched song on Google t BUY Yes $40 192d
Will Kanye West / Ye be the #1 searched person on Google this year? BUY Yes $20 192d
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #1 searched person on Google this year? BUY Yes $20 192d
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #1 searched person on Google this year? BUY Yes $40 192d
Will Superman be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? BUY Yes $40 192d
Will Luigi Mangione be the #1 searched person on Google this year? BUY Yes $40 193d
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #1 searched person on Google this year? BUY Yes $60 193d
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #1 searched person on Google this year? BUY Yes $20 193d
Will Bad Bunny be the #2 searched person on Google this year? BUY Yes $40 193d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+34.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -22.4% -29.8% 67% 33% -65.9%
≤90d 10 +5.6% -4.5% 70% 50% -31.8%
all 61 +48.4% +34.3% 43% 38% +471.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.3% 38% +471.5%
10% +21.4% 28% +416.8%
15% +9.7% 23% +366.9%
20% -1.1% 21% +321.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.11 · official $198.11 (match) · 226 history records