Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:16:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf74…c978 world 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-4%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate52%14W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% −$13
other 15% $0
politics 9% $0
sports 3% −$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.9% -8.7% 38% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 9 -5.1% -14.1% 33% 0% -18.5%
≤90d 17 -0.5% -9.9% 47% 6% -12.6%
all 27 -0.8% -10.2% 52% 4% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 4% -12.7%
10% -18.8% 4% -21.0%
15% -26.7% 0% -28.7%
20% -33.8% 0% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses14 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage473d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $28 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $54 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $26 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $4 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $23 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $48 −$25 -53%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $37 +$9 +24%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $40 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $19 +$2 +8%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $4 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 20 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 26 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will valid votes be between 30 million and 32 million in South Korean Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $9 $0 +4%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 25 $15 −$3 -17%
Will Zelenskyy apologize to Trump by Friday? Mar 11 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $26 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $26 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $9 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 92¢ $9 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 92¢ $9 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $24 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $18 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $5 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $21 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $18 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $26 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $26 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $8 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $15 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $23 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $25 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $25 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $15 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $5 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $2 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 30¢ $7 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 30¢ $14 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 31¢ $22 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records