Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:32:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcf75…cd85
sports · 218 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$989 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$918 · open −$70
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$182
Realized−$918
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses94 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$95
Open positions7
Markets (closed)209 / 218
History coverage18d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day39.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 7 History 209 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$276
7 days−$149
14 days−$700
30 days−$918
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Yes 83¢ 36¢ $166 $72 −$94 (-56%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 72¢ $29 $43 +$14 (+49%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Over 67¢ 84¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+26%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score No 67¢ 66¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 70¢ 99¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+41%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 83¢ 94¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 $0 -5%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $26 −$1 -4%
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Jun 13 $3 $0 -1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $30 −$13 -43%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States Jun 12 $15 −$13 -82%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $22 −$15 -69%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $25 +$21 +81%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $24 +$7 +27%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 −$33 -65%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $5 +$2 +43%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $5 +$2 +32%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $5 $0 -7%
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $41 −$2 -4%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -29%
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 11 $51 −$10 -20%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +43%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -6%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +38%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $27 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 11 $937 −$9 -1%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mali win on 2026-06-04? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $28 −$4 -15%
Will AC Monza win on 2026-05-29? Jun 11 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $144 −$113 -78%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 11 $22 −$4 -20%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $114 +$70 +62%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $23 −$12 -54%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 11 $19 −$16 -86%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $15 −$7 -47%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 10 $88 +$61 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 33% +$16
sports 27% −$566
other 19% −$377
tech 12% −$28
world 5% −$32
finance 4% +$34
crypto 1% −$35
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 29m
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 29m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $25 53m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $25 53m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 70¢ $5 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 83¢ $5 1h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo SELL Messi 62¢ $3 1h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 61¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $21 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 BUY 25¢ $10 4h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 31¢ $5 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 45¢ $6 4h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $26 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States SELL 2¢ $3 4h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 100¢ $10 4h
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D BUY Anubis Gaming 58¢ $5 6h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 96¢ $10 6h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 14¢ $7 13h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 43¢ $22 14h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $46 14h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $31 14h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 1¢ $0 14h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 29¢ $10 14h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 69¢ $17 14h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 80¢ $20 14h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States BUY 10¢ $15 15h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 46¢ $5 17h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 57¢ $20 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -16.0% -24.0% 44% 36% -12.0%
≤30d 209 -10.1% -18.6% 45% 34% -13.9%
≤90d 209 -10.1% -18.6% 45% 34% -13.9%
all 209 -10.1% -18.6% 45% 34% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover39.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 34% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 25% -22.1%
15% -33.5% 16% -29.6%
20% -40.1% 10% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.77 · official $196.77 · 762 history records