Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:37:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CF 0xcf76…395c other 160 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,703 (-1%) realized −$1,703 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate16%25W / 133L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$973per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$841now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$9
14 days+$1
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$65
other 35% −$139
sports 16% −$1,396
culture 2% −$4
economics 2% −$2
world 2% −$105
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% −$18
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 25 +7.3% -2.9% 20% 12% -9.3%
≤90d 104 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 6% -10.4%
all 158 -3.2% -12.4% 16% 11% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 11% -10.5%
10% -20.8% 11% -19.1%
15% -28.4% 9% -26.9%
20% -35.5% 8% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,302) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$20 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$841
Realized−$1,703
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses25 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)158 / 160
History coverage123d
Avg bet$973
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $543 $543 −$0 (-0%)
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $297 $298 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $564 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $85 $0 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,567 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,692 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $645 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $647 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $2,616 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,641 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $3,233 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $825 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $838 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $2,458 −$3 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $831 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $64 +$29 +46%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $3,873 −$4 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $1,852 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $787 −$1 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $58 +$54 +93%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $78 $0 +0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $653 −$1 -0%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 31 $46 −$46 -100%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres May 26 $44 +$64 +146%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 10 $253 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $251 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $245 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $253 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 09 $250 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $244 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $252 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $259 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $255 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $253 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $251 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $254 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $251 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $254 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $253 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 05 $256 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 04 $236 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $253 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $991 −$1 -0%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 03 $986 −$986 -100%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $1,104 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 25 $1,093 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 25 $1,046 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $5,172 −$5 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $1,060 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $544 1h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $563 1h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $564 3h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $549 42h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $550 44h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $647 2d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $648 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $644 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $645 2d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $646 3d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $647 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $647 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $647 4d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $297 5d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $896 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $898 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $849 8d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $850 8d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $824 8d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $825 8d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $837 8d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $838 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $919 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $920 9d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $948 10d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $950 10d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $830 11d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $831 11d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $755 11d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $757 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $840.80 · official $840.80 (match) · 519 history records