Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:52:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CF 0xcf7a…3de0 sports 225 markets active 2h ago coverage 619d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6,237 (-11%) realized −$6,084 · open −$153
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%86W / 127L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$165est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$4,140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$246
7 days+$2,367
14 days+$2,083
30 days+$2,949
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$9,449
sports 36% +$4,719
politics 6% −$1,345
crypto 1% −$27
culture 0% −$204
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +17.3% +6.1% 68% 68% +8.7%
≤30d 95 +3.6% -6.3% 58% 56% +7.2%
≤90d 99 +1.4% -8.3% 57% 54% +4.9%
all 213 -21.1% -28.6% 40% 38% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 38% -20.2%
10% -35.5% 34% -27.8%
15% -41.7% 32% -34.8%
20% -47.4% 25% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -38% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$182 vs −$172 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

619d coverage
Net worth$4,140
Realized−$6,084
Unrealized−$153
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses86 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$165
Open positions12
Markets (closed)213 / 225
History coverage619d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 213 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 86¢ $1,000 $1,081 +$81 (+8%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Yes 83¢ 72¢ $995 $864 −$132 (-13%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 55¢ $970 $813 −$158 (-16%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 92¢ $200 $268 +$68 (+34%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $199 $230 +$30 (+15%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $199 $195 −$4 (-2%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 64¢ $200 $181 −$19 (-9%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 40¢ $199 $140 −$59 (-30%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Over 63¢ 100¢ $69 $110 +$41 (+59%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $109 $108 −$1 (-1%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $500 +$320 +64%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $206 +$164 +79%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $212 −$210 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $57 +$43 +76%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $54 −$53 -98%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $29 −$28 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $200 +$70 +35%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $52 +$38 +73%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $272 −$46 -17%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $248 +$195 +79%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $247 −$247 -100%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,005 +$159 +16%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $60 −$59 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $151 −$149 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $203 −$201 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $117 +$123 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $214 +$156 +73%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $119 +$81 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $246 +$164 +67%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $224 +$173 +77%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $204 +$125 +61%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $912 +$98 +11%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $409 +$311 +76%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $107 −$105 -99%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $148 −$146 -99%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $103 +$47 +46%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $107 +$93 +86%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $26 +$94 +365%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $296 +$44 +15%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $76 +$74 +97%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $141 +$76 +54%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $104 +$56 +55%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $108 +$82 +75%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 +$119 +117%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $79 +$21 +27%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $101 +$24 +24%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $49 +$21 +44%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $156 +$104 +67%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$80 +79%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $122 +$78 +64%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $125 +$75 +60%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $502 +$249 +50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $150 +$60 +40%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $181 +$29 +16%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $28 +$16 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $102 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $110 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $69 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $212 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $54 6h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $29 7h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $206 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 56¢ $57 11h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 74¢ $2 26h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 74¢ $198 26h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 73¢ $225 26h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 87¢ $149 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 87¢ $86 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 86¢ $4 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 86¢ $32 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $52 28h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $22 31h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $6 31h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $110 31h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1 31h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $6 31h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1 31h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 31h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $0 33h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $7 33h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $7 33h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $233 33h
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,164 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $60 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,139.54 · official $4,139.54 (match) · 1437 history records