Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:12:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CF 0xcf7c…b00d weather 502 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$95 (+0%) realized +$92 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate70%316W / 138L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day43.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$2,514
other 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -8.9% -17.5% 72% 50% +9.1%
≤30d 255 +18.2% +6.9% 72% 67% +9.2%
≤90d 454 +12.0% +1.4% 70% 67% +3.7%
all 454 +12.0% +1.4% 70% 67% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.4% 67% +3.7%
10% ← realistic here -8.3% 63% -6.2%
15% -17.2% 62% -15.3%
20% -25.3% 50% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$32 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized+$92
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses316 / 138
Open positions10
Markets (closed)454 / 502
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day43.0
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 454 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 21? No 87¢ 90¢ $61 $63 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 21? No 91¢ 90¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 21? No 82¢ 86¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 21? No 91¢ 88¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 21? No 90¢ 94¢ $16 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 21? Yes 35¢ 98¢ $4 $10 +$6 (+180%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 21? No 90¢ 93¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 21? No 90¢ 79¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 21? No 83¢ 82¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 21? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $8 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 19? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 19? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $18 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 20 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 19? Jun 20 $18 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 20 $9 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $9 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 19? Jun 19 $9 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $9 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? Jun 18 $9 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 17 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $63 +$32 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $67 +$33 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $55 +$45 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $81 +$46 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $128 −$64 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $74 +$36 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $74 +$36 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $74 +$36 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $113 +$67 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $62 +$36 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$3 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 +$25 +157%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $88 −$72 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $71 +$38 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $74 +$36 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $113 +$67 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $66 +$34 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 91¢ $22 20m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 91¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju BUY No 90¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 83¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 21? BUY No 82¢ $29 3h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 21? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY No 87¢ $61 4h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 21? BUY No 90¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 21? BUY No 90¢ $16 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $10 41h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 89¢ $18 42h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $9 42h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $10 44h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 19? BUY No 87¢ $18 45h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 90¢ $9 46h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 83¢ $8 47h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 94¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 19? BUY No 90¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? BUY No 85¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 19? BUY No 86¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 88¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 87¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 89¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June SELL No 100¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.22 · official $203.22 (match) · 3500 history records