Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:47:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf7e…2939 world 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 295d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%9W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$1
world 27% −$7
politics 18% $0
culture 12% $0
crypto 5% −$5
economics 5% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -3.1% -12.3% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 13 -3.2% -12.4% 23% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 17 -4.1% -13.2% 24% 0% -11.3%
all 53 -4.1% -13.2% 17% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 0% -10.5%
10% -21.5% 0% -19.1%
15% -29.1% 0% -26.9%
20% -36.1% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

295d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses9 / 44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage295d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 82¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $4 $0 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $12 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $1 $0 -18%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $1 $0 +10%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $20 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $4 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $18 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $4 $0 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $39 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 19 $48 −$6 -11%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $48 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $4 −$1 -16%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 21 $60 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 21 $58 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 17 $13 $0 -1%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 16 $6 $0 -1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 13 $2 $0 -6%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 12 $59 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 12 $30 $0 -1%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 11 $29 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 09 $59 $0 -0%
2025 August second hottest on record? Sep 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 385–399 times August 29–September 5? Sep 02 $30 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 02 $30 $0 -0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2025? Sep 02 $28 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Sep 02 $2 −$1 -38%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in August? Sep 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 29 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $34 3m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $42 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $6 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $12 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $23 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $23 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 38h
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 24d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 34¢ $20 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 26d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 26d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $10 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $25 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $35 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.20 · official $8.15 (match) · 173 history records