Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:28:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CF 0xcf80…cdce sports 95 markets active 2h ago coverage 216d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-0%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate31%29W / 66L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$87
14 days−$88
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 66% −$16
other 21% +$34
world 8% −$74
sports 3% −$50
crypto 1% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -4.4% -13.5% 0% 0% -17.1%
≤30d 16 -0.8% -10.2% 6% 0% -12.3%
≤90d 56 -2.6% -11.9% 12% 11% -10.5%
all 95 +3.9% -6.0% 31% 28% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 28% -9.9%
10% -15.0% 28% -18.5%
15% -23.2% 27% -26.4%
20% -30.7% 24% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$6 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

216d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses29 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)95 / 95
History coverage216d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 95 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $31 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1,013 −$87 -9%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $135 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $16 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $22 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $28 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $18 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $32 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $463 −$9 -2%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $479 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $445 +$8 +2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $12 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $13 $0 -1%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $24 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $195 −$2 -1%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el May 20 $56 −$6 -11%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $66 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,006 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $550 −$3 -1%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $135 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $1,310 −$2 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $260 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $195 $0 -0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Apr 30 $62 −$1 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 30 $105 $0 -0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $110 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $921 −$3 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 29 $100 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $80 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 28 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $120 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $260 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $110 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 25 $270 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $510 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $150 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $335 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $80 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $250 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $130 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $150 $0 -0%
Jets vs. Utah Apr 20 $12 +$8 +61%
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 14 $12 −$12 -99%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 14 $13 −$12 -99%
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-04-05? Apr 14 $7 +$5 +67%
Wild vs. Red Wings Apr 14 $7 +$6 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $5 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $52 7d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $15 7d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $16 7d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $22 7d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $22 21d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $16 21d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $15 21d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 21d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 21d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 21d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 22d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 22d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 22d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 68¢ $275 22d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 68¢ $283 22d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $478 22d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $479 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $472 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $450 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 58¢ $311 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 58¢ $0 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 58¢ $2 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 58¢ $139 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 57¢ $445 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $448 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $211 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $237 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 349 history records