Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf81…2e35 crypto 132 markets active 2d ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$522 (-12%) realized +$144 · open −$666
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%43W / 85L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$868now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$31
14 days−$102
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$17
crypto 41% −$328
other 6% −$202
finance 4% +$7
sports 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-36.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -28.8% -35.6% 27% 27% -41.0%
≤30d 46 -9.3% -17.9% 39% 39% -8.5%
≤90d 128 -30.3% -36.9% 34% 34% -6.3%
all 128 -30.3% -36.9% 34% 34% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.9% 34% -6.3%
10% -43.0% 33% -15.3%
15% -48.5% 28% -23.5%
20% -53.5% 23% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$15 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$868
Realized+$144
Unrealized−$666
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses43 / 85
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)128 / 132
History coverage62d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1,055 $417 −$637 (-60%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $400 $374 −$26 (-7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$12 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $16 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$17 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$13 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 08 $16 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 08 $31 −$21 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 07 $90 −$50 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 07 $51 −$24 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 07 $31 +$23 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 07 $133 +$30 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 07 $31 −$25 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 07 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 07 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 07 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 07 $31 −$25 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 07 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 07 $15 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 07 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 07 $52 +$32 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 07 $26 +$33 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 07 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 07 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 04 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 04 $15 +$38 +260%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 25 $5 +$5 +91%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 25? May 25 $34 −$32 -94%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 25 $50 +$141 +281%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 28 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 28 $18 −$12 -68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 31¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $300 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 5d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $200 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $41 7d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 7d
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $250 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $150 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $868.29 · official $868.43 (match) · 285 history records