Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:24:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf83…35ae sports 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 358d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,161 (-52%) realized −$2,143 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate55%21W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$507now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$7
14 days+$65
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$2,134
sports 30% −$12
other 13% −$37
crypto 2% −$62
world 1% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -11.6% -20.0% 65% 41% -8.7%
≤30d 18 -1.8% -11.1% 67% 44% -2.6%
≤90d 19 -7.0% -15.8% 63% 42% -72.4%
all 38 -9.1% -17.8% 55% 39% -66.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 39% -66.3%
10% -25.6% 39% -69.5%
15% -32.8% 29% -72.5%
20% -39.4% 24% -75.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$156 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

358d coverage
Net worth$507
Realized−$2,143
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses21 / 17
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions9
Markets (closed)38 / 47
History coverage358d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) IR Iran 80¢ 81¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Under 83¢ 76¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 67¢ 58¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Under 76¢ 66¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 19¢ 74¢ $5 $19 +$14 (+284%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 34¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $5 $0 +6%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $11 $0 +0%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $10 +$1 +6%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $390 +$20 +5%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 +$12 +60%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $3 −$2 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $77 +$23 +30%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $9 +$4 +38%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $47 +$39 +82%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $32 +$18 +54%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $60 +$40 +67%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $35 +$58 +165%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the May 04 $2,198 −$2,159 -98%
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand Mar 08 $215 −$215 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $20 −$20 -100%
T20 World Cup: England vs New Zealand Feb 27 $25 +$60 +236%
T20 World Cup: England vs Pakistan - Most Sixes England Winner Feb 26 $10 $0 +0%
T20 World Cup: England vs Pakistan - Team Top Batter England Winner Feb 26 $15 $0 +0%
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa Feb 22 $51 −$10 -20%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs England Feb 22 $43 +$40 +93%
Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh Feb 22 $66 +$26 +39%
Will RB Leipzig vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Jan 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-12-14? Dec 20 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Valencia CF vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? Dec 20 $28 +$65 +233%
International T20 Series: India vs South Africa (Game 5) Dec 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 13? Dec 14 $7 +$3 +34%
Will Russia win on 2025-11-12? Nov 12 $6 +$2 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 13? Nov 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 14? Nov 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2025-11-02? Nov 11 $9 +$3 +28%
Solana ETF approved by July 31? Jun 29 $49 −$49 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 76¢ $101 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 67¢ $101 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 83¢ $101 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 80¢ $201 1h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 100¢ $11 2h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 94¢ $10 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 94¢ $5 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 27¢ $409 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 25¢ $204 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 24h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Sweden 54¢ $3 26h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 26h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes $1 27h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $5 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 27h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $20 27h
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No $5 41h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 41¢ $5 41h
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No $5 41h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 19¢ $5 41h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 33¢ $5 41h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Australia 72¢ $9 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 76¢ $77 2d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 55¢ $47 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $22 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $60 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $506.83 · official $476.43 · 91 history records