Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:17:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf8a…2d3c other 27 markets active 4h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$84 (-4%) realized −$23 · open −$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%3W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$806now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$328
sports 47% +$190
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -19.4% -27.1% 23% 23% -14.9%
≤30d 13 -19.4% -27.1% 23% 23% -14.9%
≤90d 13 -19.4% -27.1% 23% 23% -14.9%
all 13 -19.4% -27.1% 23% 23% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 23% -14.9%
10% -34.1% 23% -23.1%
15% -40.4% 23% -30.5%
20% -46.3% 23% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$278 vs −$91 · ×3.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$806
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions14
Markets (closed)13 / 27
History coverage2d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $168 $179 +$11 (+7%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $137 $125 −$12 (-9%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $66 $82 +$16 (+25%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $67 $64 −$3 (-4%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-3%)
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $60 $39 −$21 (-35%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $40 $35 −$5 (-14%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $46 $33 −$13 (-28%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $29 $27 −$2 (-6%)
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-11%)
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $40 $17 −$23 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $195 +$249 +128%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $66 +$226 +344%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $79 −$77 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $45 −$44 -97%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $130 +$358 +276%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $60 −$58 -97%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $123 −$120 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $173 −$170 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $167 −$163 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $53 −$52 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $91 −$88 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $91 −$88 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 3h
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $41 3h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $41 3h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $30 4h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 4h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 11¢ $35 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 4h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 17¢ $140 4h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 17¢ $61 4h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $69 4h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $172 5h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $299 5h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 47¢ $145 5h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $195 5h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $291 5h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $47 13h
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 11¢ $51 13h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $66 13h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $79 15h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $45 15h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 100¢ $488 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $60 37h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 37h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 25¢ $123 42h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 34¢ $173 47h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 26¢ $130 2d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $68 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 24¢ $167 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 10¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $806.46 · official $806.46 (match) · 32 history records