Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:32:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf8b…bff8 sports 463 markets active 20h ago coverage 279d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$807 (+3%) realized +$659 · open +$148
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%230W / 223L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$213est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$920now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$131
7 days+$351
14 days+$406
30 days−$2,200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$945
other 12% +$109
politics 1% −$61
crypto 1% −$115
culture 0% −$113
world 0% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +43.5% +29.8% 54% 54% +17.1%
≤30d 59 -31.5% -38.0% 27% 25% -49.0%
≤90d 298 -30.4% -37.1% 30% 29% -29.7%
all 453 +8.4% -1.9% 51% 49% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 49% -7.1%
10% -11.3% 48% -16.0%
15% -19.9% 46% -24.1%
20% -27.7% 44% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +50% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$49 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

279d coverage
Net worth$920
Realized+$659
Unrealized+$148
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses230 / 223
Est. fees paid−$213
Open positions10
Markets (closed)453 / 463
History coverage279d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 453 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 88¢ $134 $246 +$112 (+83%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $131 $134 +$3 (+2%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $108 $111 +$2 (+2%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 19¢ $49 $105 +$56 (+115%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Toby Samuel 44¢ 44¢ $79 $78 −$1 (-1%)
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $78 $77 −$1 (-1%)
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Nuno Borges 30¢ 28¢ $55 $53 −$3 (-5%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 24¢ $67 $51 −$16 (-23%)
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Tomas Etcheverry 23¢ 24¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+2%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 14¢ 12¢ $36 $29 −$6 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $128 +$222 +174%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $88 −$88 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $81 +$99 +124%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $35 +$95 +270%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $75 +$175 +233%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $74 −$74 -100%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $200 +$25 +13%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 10 $99 −$99 -100%
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm Jun 09 $140 −$2 -2%
Stuttgart Open: Gauthier Onclin vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 08 $70 +$115 +163%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $54 −$54 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 08 $45 +$40 +90%
Centurion 2: Arda Azkara vs Khololwam Montsi Jun 04 $76 −$75 -98%
Birmingham: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 02 $107 +$130 +122%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo May 31 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Tromsø IL win on 2026-05-16? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Molde FK win on 2026-05-25? May 31 $19 −$19 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jiri Lehecka May 31 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Tromsø IL win on 2026-05-25? May 31 $64 −$64 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva May 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Bordeaux: Benjamin Bonzi vs Tallon Griekspoor May 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Sonego vs Ignacio Buse May 31 $48 −$48 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Cameron Norrie vs Adolfo Vallejo May 31 $70 −$70 -100%
Bordeaux: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 31 $80 −$80 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Adam Walton May 31 $83 −$83 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi May 31 $75 −$75 -100%
Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Clement Tabur May 31 $51 −$51 -100%
Geneva Open: Valentin Royer vs Francisco Comesana May 31 $59 −$59 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Corentin Moutet May 31 $72 −$72 -100%
Aix en Provence: Ignacio Buse vs Francisco Comesana May 31 $80 −$80 -100%
Bordeaux: Titouan Droguet vs Jacob Fearnley May 31 $70 −$70 -100%
Cagliari: Matteo Arnaldi vs Nuno Borges May 31 $86 −$86 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Arnaldi May 31 $150 −$150 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Jakub Mensik vs Jan-Lennard Struff May 31 $74 −$74 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Eliot Spizzirri vs Frances Tiafoe May 31 $27 −$27 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Christ May 31 $115 −$115 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karen Khachanov vs Botic van de Zandschul May 31 $132 −$132 -100%
Geneva Open: Raul Brancaccio vs Stan Wawrinka May 31 $121 −$121 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry May 31 $121 −$121 -100%
Bordeaux: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Quentin Halys May 31 $134 −$134 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $98 −$98 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann May 31 $133 −$133 -100%
Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $79 −$79 -100%
Bordeaux: Sho Shimabukuro vs Quentin Halys May 31 $92 −$92 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 31 $79 −$79 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Miomir Kecmanovic May 31 $115 −$115 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Hamad Medjedovic vs Yannick Hanfmann May 31 $140 −$140 -100%
Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik May 31 $144 −$144 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Jaume Munar May 31 $217 −$217 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Tomas Etcheverry 23¢ $20 20h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Tomas Etcheverry 23¢ $4 22h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Tomas Etcheverry 23¢ $10 23h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Nuno Borges 30¢ $54 25h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 37¢ $45 26h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 44¢ $74 26h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 37¢ $1 27h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 44¢ $4 27h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 37¢ $12 28h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 37¢ $18 28h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 37¢ $18 28h
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Alex Bolt 35¢ $84 28h
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Alex Bolt 35¢ $4 29h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 44¢ $1 29h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 37¢ $1 30h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 37¢ $1 30h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 37¢ $10 30h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 44¢ $1 30h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Nuno Borges 30¢ $1 32h
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 44¢ $81 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 2d
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 30¢ $75 4d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 27¢ $74 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 28¢ $86 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 28¢ $4 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 28¢ $0 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 28¢ $0 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 28¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $920.31 · official $920.33 (match) · 1687 history records