Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:48:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf8c…8f62 crypto 870 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (95 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$277 (-3%) realized −$277 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate54%470W / 400L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day95.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$319
14 days−$492
30 days−$347
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$260
other 3% −$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (95 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 628 -4.4% -13.5% 60% 28% -13.7%
≤30d 870 -8.7% -17.4% 54% 31% -13.5%
≤90d 870 -8.7% -17.4% 54% 31% -13.5%
all 870 -8.7% -17.4% 54% 31% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover95.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 31% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 26% -21.8%
15% -32.5% 26% -29.3%
20% -39.1% 24% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$277
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses470 / 400
Open positions0
Markets (closed)870 / 870
History coverage14d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day95.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 870 Trades
no open positions (264 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$3 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$3 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$15 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$3 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$15 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$16 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $30 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $30 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $30 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $16 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $30 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $30 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $30 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1861 history records