Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:01:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf8e…f006 other 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 635d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%4W / 73L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% −$15
other 1% $0
sports 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 6 -0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.5%
all 77 -1.7% -11.1% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

635d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses4 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 77
History coverage635d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $51 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 06 $51 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 09 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $52 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $52 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 19 $52 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 15 $52 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 10 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons have the worst record in the NBA? Feb 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Nov 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Brunson lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the Serie A? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Stuttgart win the Bundesliga? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jarrett Allen lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the Eastern Conference? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Real Sociedad win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win La Liga? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will RB Leipzig win the Bundesliga? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Canada federal election in 2024? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Elon Musk citizenship revoked before inauguration? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Marvin Harrison Jr. win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Texans win the AFC Championship? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Chargers win the AFC Championship? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
UK civil war in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in December? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Derrick Henry be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Texas win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Patrick Mahomes be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alvin Kamara be the top Fantasy Running Back? Dec 20 $0 $0 -1%
Will Girona FC win La Liga? Dec 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will Heung-Min Son be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Dec 20 $0 $0 -1%
World Chess Championship 2024 Winner Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Drake London be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Dec 10 $0 $0 -0%
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Falcons win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Texas A&M win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alabama win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Nov 26 $0 $0 -2%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Nov 26 $0 $0 -4%
Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C? Nov 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will the New York Giants win the NFC East? Nov 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Kip Tom for Agriculture Secretary? Nov 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the Western Conference? Nov 18 $1 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Nov 18 $1 $0 -1%
Will Hoffenheim win the UEFA Europa League? Nov 18 $1 $0 -0%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? Nov 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in November? Nov 18 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 14h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $51 19d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $51 19d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL No 100¢ $51 37d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY No 100¢ $30 37d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY No 100¢ $21 37d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $51 46d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $51 47d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 67d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 67d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL No 100¢ $52 71d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $52 72d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 97d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 98d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 101d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 102d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $52 104d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $52 104d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 106d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 107d
Will the Detroit Pistons have the worst record in the NBA? SELL No 100¢ $50 138d
Will the Detroit Pistons have the worst record in the NBA? BUY No 100¢ $50 151d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 BUY No 100¢ $50 250d
Will Alvin Kamara be the top Fantasy Running Back? SELL No 99¢ $0 552d
Will Alvin Kamara be the top Fantasy Running Back? BUY No 99¢ $0 552d
Will Girona FC win La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $1 552d
Will Girona FC win La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $1 552d
Will Heung-Min Son be the top goalscorer in the EPL? SELL No 99¢ $0 552d
Will Heung-Min Son be the top goalscorer in the EPL? BUY No 100¢ $0 552d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 158 history records