Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:45:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CF 0xcf91…4c43 crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$440 (+59%) realized +$440 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +119% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +90% what you keep after slip
Net edge+90%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%9W / 13L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$331
7 days+$331
14 days+$331
30 days+$146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$366
other 26% −$50
crypto 15% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+98.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +56.4% +41.5% 46% 46% +128.3%
≤30d 15 +35.5% +22.6% 40% 40% +23.3%
≤90d 22 +119.1% +98.2% 41% 41% +35.7%
all 22 +119.1% +98.2% 41% 41% +35.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +98.2% 41% +35.7%
10% +79.2% 41% +22.7%
15% +61.9% 41% +10.8%
20% +46.0% 36% -0.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +119% · $-wt +53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +196% → late +42% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$27 · ×2.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$440
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses9 / 13
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage38d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$15 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$9 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $82 +$245 +300%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +43%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $15 +$115 +744%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$9 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$8 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$28 +178%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $149 −$145 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $72 +$158 +220%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $102 −$25 -24%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 10 $37 −$36 -98%
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) May 10 $6 −$6 -97%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 09 $60 +$36 +60%
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims) May 09 $20 +$54 +267%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $5 12h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $5 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.95 · official $9.95 (match) · 125 history records