Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:09:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf96…e0d3 crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$99 (-10%) realized −$99 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate85%22W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -13.7% -21.9% 85% 4% -18.9%
≤30d 26 -13.7% -21.9% 85% 4% -18.9%
≤90d 26 -13.7% -21.9% 85% 4% -18.9%
all 26 -13.7% -21.9% 85% 4% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.9% 4% -18.9%
10% ← realistic here -29.4% 0% -26.6%
15% -36.2% 0% -33.7%
20% -42.5% 0% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$33 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses22 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $90 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $90 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $90 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $90 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $101 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $101 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $120 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records