Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:07:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcf99…07c8 crypto 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-1%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate79%37W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$48
14 days+$48
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +6.7% -3.4% 100% 29% -3.6%
≤30d 7 +6.7% -3.4% 100% 29% -3.6%
≤90d 47 -1.3% -10.7% 79% 38% -11.6%
all 47 -1.3% -10.7% 79% 38% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 38% -11.6%
10% -19.2% 21% -20.1%
15% -27.0% 15% -27.8%
20% -34.2% 13% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$61 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses37 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage60d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $132 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $132 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $118 +$16 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 19 $103 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $101 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $97 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 09 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 09 $90 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 09 $81 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 09 $71 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 09 $76 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 09 $102 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 09 $153 +$13 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 09 $103 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 09 $101 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 09 $102 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 09 $62 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 09 $51 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 09 $51 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 08 $194 −$190 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 07 $183 +$19 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 07 $175 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 07 $161 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 07 $153 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 07 $102 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 07 $126 +$24 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 07 $139 −$13 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 07 $127 +$13 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 06 $98 +$28 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 06 $91 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 06 $74 +$18 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 06 $48 +$25 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 20 $33 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 20 $40 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 20 $50 +$33 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 20 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 20 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 20 $50 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 20 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 20 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 20 $50 +$45 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 20 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 20 $80 +$52 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Apr 20 $50 +$39 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 20 $35 +$15 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $138 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $132 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $133 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $132 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $133 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $118 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $92 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $91 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $90 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $88 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $81 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $77 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $71 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $77 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $76 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $107 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $166 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $153 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $138 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records