Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:18:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CF 0xcf9b…2013 sports 149 markets active 3h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$514 (-3%) realized −$570 · open +$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%56W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$326est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$50
30 days−$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$599
other 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 21 -6.6% -15.5% 43% 43% -29.0%
≤90d 148 +3.9% -6.0% 38% 38% -13.2%
all 148 +3.9% -6.0% 38% 38% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 38% -13.2%
10% -15.0% 36% -21.5%
15% -23.2% 36% -29.1%
20% -30.7% 36% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$176 vs −$115 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized−$570
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses56 / 92
Est. fees paid−$326
Open positions1
Markets (closed)148 / 149
History coverage89d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Misa Esports vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group D Misa Esports 46¢ 100¢ $47 $103 +$56 (+117%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 80 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $92 −$90 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $73 +$19 +26%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $42 +$31 +73%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $35 +$7 +21%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $20 +$15 +76%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $110 −$108 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $40 −$39 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$70 +238%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $28 +$50 +180%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $18 +$44 +237%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $22 −$22 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $35 +$43 +123%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) Jun 15 $30 +$26 +88%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $48 −$47 -98%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $64 −$63 -98%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs REBORN (BO5) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs May 28 $64 −$63 -98%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North America: St May 26 $66 −$64 -98%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL North A May 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs May 26 $64 +$104 +162%
Valorant: REBORN vs Joblife (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs May 26 $97 −$94 -98%
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner May 15 $55 −$55 -99%
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner May 15 $31 +$24 +77%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playo May 14 $49 −$48 -98%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $99 −$97 -98%
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 10 $58 −$57 -98%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 10 $61 −$60 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Playoffs May 10 $102 +$116 +114%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs DRX - Map 2 Winner May 10 $69 −$68 -98%
Valorant: T1 vs Rex Regum Qeon (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 10 $77 −$75 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $256 −$250 -98%
Valorant: Team Envy vs MIBR - Map 2 Winner May 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Valorant: Team Envy vs MIBR - Map 1 Winner May 10 $37 +$120 +324%
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner May 09 $167 +$251 +150%
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 09 $51 −$50 -97%
Valorant: DRX vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 09 $64 +$102 +158%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - VCT Pacific Pla May 09 $71 +$185 +258%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Playoff May 09 $45 −$44 -98%
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Gr May 09 $168 +$27 +16%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 08 $113 −$111 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 08 $82 +$199 +244%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 05 $22 −$22 -98%
Valorant: Mandatory vs WIP Esports (BO5) - VCL France: Revolution Stag May 05 $50 −$49 -98%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Division One (BO3) - VCL North Amer May 04 $145 −$143 -98%
Valorant: WIP Esports vs F9 EICAR (BO3) - VCL France: Revolution Stage May 04 $153 −$150 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Misa Esports vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 46¢ $48 2h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $92 12d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 79¢ $73 12d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $42 12d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 82¢ $35 12d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $35 12d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $20 13d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 13d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 13d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 22¢ $19 13d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 25¢ $10 13d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 31¢ $19 13d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $29 13d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $51 13d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 18¢ $10 13d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 39¢ $30 13d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 13d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 13d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 13d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $28 13d
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 42¢ $22 14d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $18 14d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 99¢ $79 14d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 44¢ $35 14d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 10¢ $5 14d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 29¢ $16 14d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) SELL XLG Gaming 99¢ $57 14d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) BUY XLG Gaming 52¢ $30 14d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $36 14d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 30¢ $48 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.01 · official $103.01 (match) · 300 history records