Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:20:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CF 0xcf9e…518e world 231 markets active 16h ago coverage 652d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$29,099 (+16%) realized +$21,508 · open +$7,591
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate68%124W / 58L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$795per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$35,112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$812
7 days+$1,867
14 days+$1,867
30 days+$1,485
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 88% +$32,771
other 5% +$1,214
crypto 3% −$3,686
sports 2% +$717
politics 2% −$1,210
tech 0% −$550
economics 0% −$12
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +29.7% +17.3% 67% 50% +24.5%
≤30d 12 +29.1% +16.8% 75% 67% +9.8%
≤90d 19 +60.1% +44.9% 84% 79% +48.5%
all 182 +10.5% -0.0% 68% 57% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.0% 57% +3.4%
10% -9.6% 45% -6.5%
15% -18.3% 34% -15.6%
20% -26.3% 24% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +64% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$800) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$498 vs −$692 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

652d coverage
Net worth$35,112
Realized+$21,508
Unrealized+$7,591
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses124 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions49
Markets (closed)182 / 231
History coverage652d
Avg bet$795
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 49 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? No 46¢ 95¢ $2,910 $6,077 +$3,166 (+109%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 58¢ 58¢ $3,409 $3,464 +$56 (+2%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? No 48¢ 98¢ $1,608 $3,247 +$1,640 (+102%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? No 71¢ 66¢ $3,355 $3,149 −$206 (-6%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? No 51¢ 64¢ $2,547 $3,147 +$601 (+24%)
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? No 71¢ 99¢ $1,964 $2,744 +$780 (+40%)
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? No 69¢ 99¢ $1,500 $2,141 +$641 (+43%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $2,000 $1,950 −$50 (-2%)
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 80¢ $1,800 $1,918 +$118 (+7%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $1,267 $1,283 +$16 (+1%)
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30? No 76¢ 99¢ $913 $1,190 +$277 (+30%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $1,000 $949 −$51 (-5%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 59¢ 72¢ $753 $915 +$162 (+21%)
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? No 63¢ 88¢ $358 $502 +$143 (+40%)
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 84¢ $400 $442 +$42 (+11%)
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by July 31? No 67¢ 90¢ $199 $268 +$68 (+34%)
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? No 85¢ 88¢ $246 $253 +$7 (+3%)
Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026? No 69¢ 66¢ $257 $247 −$10 (-4%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 83¢ 99¢ $186 $224 +$37 (+20%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? No 64¢ 88¢ $161 $224 +$62 (+38%)
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 69¢ $190 $174 −$16 (-9%)
Will Russia enter Myrne by July 31, 2026? No 48¢ 80¢ $96 $161 +$65 (+67%)
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31? No 64¢ 66¢ $132 $136 +$4 (+3%)
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? No 70¢ 68¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? No 30¢ 57¢ $45 $87 +$42 (+92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $307 −$90 -29%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2,029 +$901 +44%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $611 +$889 +146%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $1,015 −$51 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,009 +$217 +22%
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$14 +14%
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by May 31? Jun 01 $159 +$68 +43%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $1,010 −$1,001 -99%
Will Russia capture Toretske by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $100 +$56 +56%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $210 +$184 +88%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $420 +$295 +70%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026? May 03 $536 +$286 +53%
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 17? Apr 15 $200 +$38 +19%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $63 +$13 +21%
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $500 +$214 +43%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? Apr 03 $630 +$3,069 +487%
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by March 31? Apr 03 $488 +$333 +68%
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $1,532 +$1,554 +102%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30? Mar 12 $554 −$554 -100%
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 15, 2026? Mar 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026? Mar 12 $754 −$754 -100%
Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $100 +$30 +30%
Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by March 31, 2026? Mar 01 $119 −$119 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28? Feb 28 $154 +$112 +73%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? Feb 27 $790 +$1,491 +189%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28? Feb 06 $733 +$901 +123%
Will Russia capture Lyman by January 31, 2026? Feb 04 $192 +$107 +56%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? Feb 04 $388 +$275 +71%
Will Russia enter Zaliznychne by January 31? Feb 04 $766 +$878 +115%
Will Russia enter Ternuvate by February 28? Jan 30 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31? Jan 01 $1,362 +$878 +64%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31? Jan 01 $12,278 +$10,431 +85%
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31? Dec 17 $2,596 +$1,254 +48%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31? Dec 16 $363 −$363 -100%
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by January 31? Dec 15 $47 −$14 -29%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31? Dec 15 $6,906 −$6,906 -100%
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31? Dec 07 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31? Dec 06 $11 +$3 +23%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 06 $5 +$1 +13%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Dec 06 $10 +$4 +37%
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? Dec 06 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31? Dec 06 $55 +$16 +29%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30? Dec 01 $1,275 +$1,424 +112%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by November 30? Nov 30 $631 +$541 +86%
Will Russia recapture territory in Vilne by November 30? Nov 30 $835 +$956 +114%
Will Russia recapture territory in Kucheriv Yar by November 30? Nov 30 $587 +$666 +114%
Will Russia capture Shakhove by November 30? Nov 30 $708 +$738 +104%
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by December 31? Nov 24 $247 −$241 -97%
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by November 30? Nov 24 $1,062 −$839 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $63 15h
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $103 16h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $24 16h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $200 16h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $714 16h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $297 16h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $217 16h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 27¢ $307 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL No 98¢ $2,930 16h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? BUY No 80¢ $1 16h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $32 16h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $10 46h
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $101 47h
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,024 47h
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $922 47h
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $178 2d
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY No 80¢ $1 2d
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 2d
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag BUY Yes 82¢ $1 2d
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 2d
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup BUY Yes 38¢ $1 2d
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro BUY Yes 59¢ $1 2d
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 60¢ $1 2d
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 61¢ $1 2d
Will Lamine Yamal record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 79¢ $1 2d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35,111.96 · official $35,111.99 (match) · 1849 history records