Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:36:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcfa0…5aa3 weather 199 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-2%) realized −$16 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate91%160W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$28
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 36% −$2
other 23% −$2
sports 19% +$7
politics 8% −$11
crypto 5% −$1
world 5% +$4
tech 2% +$2
finance 2% −$17
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -1.5% -10.9% 90% 39% -10.6%
≤30d 151 -3.0% -12.2% 89% 30% -12.2%
≤90d 176 -1.7% -11.0% 91% 28% -11.0%
all 176 -1.7% -11.0% 91% 28% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 28% -11.0%
10% -19.6% 0% -19.5%
15% -27.3% 0% -27.3%
20% -34.4% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses160 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions23
Markets (closed)176 / 199
History coverage62d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 16? No 90¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 16? No 92¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+9%)
Will Iván Cepeda win between 45% and 50% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election? No 92¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? No 90¢ 96¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 17? No 88¢ 92¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will Safepoint's market cap be between $1.3B and $1.5B at market close on IPO day? No 93¢ 97¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? No 92¢ 92¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Under 90¢ 90¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 Under 96¢ 96¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? No 92¢ 92¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 92¢ 92¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? No 90¢ 88¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? No 88¢ 87¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Under 88¢ 84¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 17? No 88¢ 84¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 88¢ 81¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Waymo operate in 6 cities on June 30 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027? No 88¢ 89¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Dakarai Larriett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? No 88¢ 58¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-34%)
Will Matthew Dunlap be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? No 95¢ 50¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +14%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 16 $6 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +14%
Will Donald Trump attend the G7 Summit? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +12%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +11%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +15%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +15%
Will Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Ca Jun 15 $6 +$1 +15%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $6 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +9%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $6 $0 +9%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 13? Jun 14 $6 $0 +5%
Chemsdine Talbi: 1+ goals + assists Jun 14 $6 +$1 +15%
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $6 +$1 +11%
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Ko Itakura be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: CD Coquimbo Unido (-2.5) Jun 13 $6 +$1 +11%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl Jun 13 $6 $0 +8%
Will Kimbal Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's Jun 13 $6 +$1 +14%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $6 $0 +7%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $11 +$1 +9%
Álvaro Fidalgo: 1+ goals Jun 11 $6 +$1 +11%
Helsingborgs IF vs. Landskrona BoIS: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $6 $0 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 11 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 11 $6 $0 +9%
Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Will Matthieu Pavon finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $6 14m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 90¢ $6 52m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $6 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $4 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $6 11h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $6 12h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $6 16h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $6 17h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $6 17h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $6 22h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $6 23h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $6 23h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $6 26h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 BUY No 96¢ $6 28h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $6 29h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $6 29h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $6 30h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $6 31h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $6 31h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $6 32h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY No 87¢ $6 35h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 87¢ $6 36h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY No 92¢ $6 37h
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs BUY OLDBOYS- 77¢ $5 39h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 88¢ $6 42h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $6 46h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 92¢ $6 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.37 · official $128.22 (match) · 377 history records