Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:24:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcfa0…1e42 crypto 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 624d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-3%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate86%43W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 23% −$2
crypto 22% −$19
tech 21% +$1
weather 14% +$4
politics 6% +$1
economics 6% $0
sports 3% −$1
world 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +8.7% -1.7% 100% 0% -1.7%
≤30d 1 +8.7% -1.7% 100% 0% -1.7%
≤90d 5 +3.7% -6.2% 100% 0% -5.1%
all 50 -9.2% -17.8% 86% 12% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 12% -12.1%
10% -25.7% 8% -20.5%
15% -32.9% 2% -28.2%
20% -39.5% 0% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

624d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses43 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage624d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 30? Jun 23 $36 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 30? Apr 30 $34 +$1 +4%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 30 $9 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 30 $10 $0 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 30 $16 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down on February 14? Mar 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 14? Mar 11 $12 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 14? Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 14 $13 $0 +1%
Maduro out in 2025? Feb 14 $13 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Dec 25 $16 $0 +1%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Oct 18 $22 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Sep 29 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Aug 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Justin Bieber's album 'SWAG' have over 150k sales in its first we Aug 22 $12 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July Aug 22 $21 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down on June 29? Jul 18 $3 $0 +9%
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? Jul 18 $5 $0 +3%
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? Jul 18 $13 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 29 $8 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 16–23? Jun 29 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 18 $6 $0 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in April? May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? May 18 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31? Apr 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Apr 05 $6 $0 +5%
Kash Patel confirmed as Director of the FBI? Apr 05 $15 $0 +1%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Feb 17 $6 $0 +2%
Will Biden finish his term? Feb 17 $10 $0 +1%
East coast port strike in January? Feb 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Feb 17 $12 $0 +1%
Devils vs. Sharks Jan 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k again by January 15? Jan 13 $1 $0 +24%
Browns vs. Ravens Jan 13 $9 $0 +5%
Hawks vs. Celtics Jan 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024? Jan 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Raiders vs. Dolphins Jan 04 $0 $0 +32%
Packers vs. Bears Jan 04 $0 $0 +37%
Rams vs. Patriots Jan 04 $1 $0 +28%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Jan 04 $1 $0 +5%
Jaguars vs. Lions Jan 04 $1 $0 +14%
Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity not be proven in 2024? Jan 04 $4 $0 +7%
No Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 04 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin above $76,000 on November 15? Jan 04 $12 +$1 +4%
Will Wisconsin be the closest state? Jan 04 $20 $0 +1%
Will Sebastião Melo win the 2024 Porto Alegre mayoral election? Nov 12 $4 $0 +3%
Will there be more than 14 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Seas Nov 12 $7 $0 +2%
Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross less than $105m opening weekend? Nov 12 $8 $0 +0%
Puffer airdrop in 2024? Nov 12 $9 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 30? BUY Yes 92¢ $36 53d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 53d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 30? BUY Yes 96¢ $34 54d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 98¢ $10 103d
Will Solana reach $140 in March? BUY No 99¢ $9 103d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 97¢ $16 103d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 128d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 14? BUY Yes 96¢ $12 128d
Solana Up or Down on February 14? BUY Up 97¢ $10 128d
Maduro out in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $13 179d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 99¢ $13 179d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $16 247d
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? BUY No 100¢ $22 266d
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $11 305d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? BUY No 99¢ $23 305d
Will Justin Bieber's album 'SWAG' have over 150k sales in its first we BUY Yes 98¢ $12 340d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July BUY Yes 97¢ $21 340d
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? BUY No 97¢ $5 358d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? BUY Yes 99¢ $13 358d
Solana Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 92¢ $3 358d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 401d
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 16–23? BUY No 99¢ $12 401d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $8 401d
Will Solana reach $300 in April? BUY No 100¢ $24 443d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $12 443d
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 490d
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? BUY Yes 95¢ $6 490d
Kash Patel confirmed as Director of the FBI? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 490d
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 490d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.77 · official $33.77 (match) · 102 history records