Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:46:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CF 0xcfa7…2491 other 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$28 (+14%) realized +$105 · open −$77
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$34
sports 39% −$17
world 8% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +39.5% +26.2% 50% 50% -2.2%
≤30d 4 +39.5% +26.2% 50% 50% -2.2%
≤90d 4 +39.5% +26.2% 50% 50% -2.2%
all 4 +39.5% +26.2% 50% 50% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.2% 50% -2.2%
10% +14.2% 50% -11.5%
15% +3.1% 25% -20.1%
20% -7.0% 25% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$17 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$105
Unrealized−$77
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage8d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $80 $3 −$77 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $11 +$3 +25%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 29 $79 −$17 -22%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $16 +$40 +255%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 17m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 7¢ $13 21m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 25m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 29¢ $11 26m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 40¢ $68 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 14¢ $62 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 16¢ $26 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 16¢ $26 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 16¢ $26 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 89¢ $56 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $16 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 8d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.14 · official $0.35 · 14 history records