Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:18:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcfa7…3fce weather 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$305 (-17%) realized −$307 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate39%16W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 90% −$243
tech 7% −$75
crypto 2% −$19
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -22.6% -30.0% 39% 17% -28.7%
≤30d 41 -22.6% -30.0% 39% 17% -28.7%
≤90d 41 -22.6% -30.0% 39% 17% -28.7%
all 41 -22.6% -30.0% 39% 17% -28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.0% 17% -28.7%
10% -36.7% 15% -35.5%
15% -42.8% 7% -41.7%
20% -48.4% 7% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$18 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$307
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses16 / 25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage6d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? No 92¢ 94¢ $62 $64 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? No 92¢ 98¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 −$3 -11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? Jun 18 $8 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $41 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +91%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $35 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $61 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $93 −$36 -39%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 −$2 -27%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $145 −$145 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $38 −$22 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $142 +$45 +31%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 15 $42 −$41 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $41 +$2 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 16? Jun 15 $18 −$4 -23%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 16? Jun 15 $67 −$23 -35%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 −$3 -16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $171 −$27 -16%
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day Jun 15 $31 +$18 +60%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $103 +$23 +22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $40 +$2 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 15? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$6 +57%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $46 −$13 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 14? Jun 13 $103 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$7 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$2 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $25 17m
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 87¢ $27 17m
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 47¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 44¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 44¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 41¢ $41 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $12 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 26¢ $13 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $30 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 39¢ $41 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 11¢ $0 20h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $51 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? SELL Yes 49¢ $52 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 28h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? SELL Yes 26¢ $6 28h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 85¢ $31 28h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 28h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $20 38h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 83¢ $30 38h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 39h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 39h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 39h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $8 41h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.54 · official $76.53 (match) · 131 history records