Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:09:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CF 0xcfaa…28f7 sports 514 markets active 0h ago coverage 102d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 102d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,390 (+4%) realized +$1,318 · open +$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%249W / 327L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Fees−$427est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$442now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 102d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$332
crypto 33% −$323
other 2% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 155 -43.0% -48.4% 32% 32% -17.3%
≤30d 389 -20.6% -28.1% 40% 39% -12.8%
≤90d 555 -13.3% -21.6% 43% 42% -12.0%
all 576 -12.7% -21.0% 43% 43% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.0% 43% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -28.6% 40% -20.3%
15% -35.5% 34% -28.0%
20% -41.8% 30% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$49 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$442
Realized+$1,318
Unrealized+$72
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses249 / 327
Est. fees paid−$427
Open positions11
Markets (closed)576 / 514
History coverage102d ⚠
Avg bet$76
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 576 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 84¢ $38 $84 +$46 (+122%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Kenin vs Daria Snigur Daria Snigur 70¢ 68¢ $84 $81 −$3 (-4%)
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Frances Tiafoe 76¢ 85¢ $68 $76 +$8 (+12%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 57¢ $55 $57 +$2 (+5%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 30¢ $42 $46 +$3 (+8%)
Brescia: Mayar Sherif vs Elizara Yaneva Mayar Sherif 51¢ 91¢ $20 $36 +$16 (+78%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $15 $25 +$10 (+69%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-9%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 6¢ 9¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+50%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-22%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 4¢ 1¢ $16 $3 −$14 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 326 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on January 30 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 6? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 5? Jun 20 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 12? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 2 Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on January 30? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on January 1 Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 1 Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $100,000 on January 15? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 30-January 5? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 11? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on February 10 Jun 20 $5 −$3 -76%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 16 Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on February 8 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 22 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on February 1 Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 16 Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on February 2 Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on February 1 Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 7? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 29 Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 12 Jun 20 $13 −$12 -93%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on February 3? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 2 Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 7? Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 28 Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-02-04? Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 6? Jun 20 $6 −$4 -72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $70,000 on February 9? Jun 20 $7 +$18 +248%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 2? Jun 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on February 2 Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 23 Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 1 Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 12? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 1 Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 10? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 1 Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 26 Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on February 2 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 3? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 10? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 5? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 24 Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 4? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on February 1 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 10? Jun 20 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 6? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 11? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Kenin vs Daria Snigur BUY Daria Snigur 63¢ $13 8m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Kenin vs Daria Snigur BUY Daria Snigur 66¢ $7 8m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Kenin vs Daria Snigur BUY Daria Snigur 66¢ $6 8m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Kenin vs Daria Snigur BUY Daria Snigur 69¢ $14 8m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Kenin vs Daria Snigur BUY Daria Snigur 72¢ $14 9m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Kenin vs Daria Snigur BUY Daria Snigur 75¢ $15 11m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Kenin vs Daria Snigur BUY Daria Snigur 77¢ $15 12m
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 85¢ $26 16m
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 81¢ $16 23m
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 64¢ $6 31m
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 67¢ $7 38m
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 68¢ $14 38m
Brescia: Mayar Sherif vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Mayar Sherif 44¢ $4 54m
Brescia: Mayar Sherif vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Mayar Sherif 49¢ $5 55m
Brescia: Mayar Sherif vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Mayar Sherif 54¢ $5 59m
Brescia: Mayar Sherif vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Mayar Sherif 58¢ $2 1h
Brescia: Mayar Sherif vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Mayar Sherif 58¢ $2 1h
Brescia: Mayar Sherif vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Mayar Sherif 58¢ $2 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert BUY Tommy Paul 78¢ $16 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert BUY Tommy Paul 65¢ $13 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 56¢ $166 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 63¢ $96 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 47¢ $1 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 47¢ $13 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 63¢ $99 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 49¢ $15 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 52¢ $16 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 21¢ $1 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 23¢ $5 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 24¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $441.52 · official $441.62 (match) · 3500 history records