Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:12:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcfac…bc1c other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,921 (-44%) realized −$1,913 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%2W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$294per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$1,448
sports 12% −$523
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-57.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -53.0% -57.5% 17% 17% -52.3%
≤30d 12 -53.0% -57.5% 17% 17% -52.3%
≤90d 12 -53.0% -57.5% 17% 17% -52.3%
all 12 -53.0% -57.5% 17% 17% -52.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.5% 17% -52.3%
10% -61.6% 17% -56.9%
15% -65.3% 17% -61.1%
20% -68.7% 8% -64.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -64% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$344 vs −$265 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$217
Realized−$1,913
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses2 / 10
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage3d
Avg bet$294
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Canada? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 3 Canada? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $454 −$450 -99%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $498 −$61 -12%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $533 −$523 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,115 −$1,104 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $252 +$398 +158%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $766 +$290 +38%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 −$10 -20%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $118 −$115 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $116 −$116 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $72 −$70 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $153 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $454 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $438 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $533 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $459 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $649 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $656 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 38¢ $252 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 96¢ $1,056 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $766 3d
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 7¢ $41 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $118 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 33¢ $99 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $498 3d
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 7¢ $72 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.84 · official $216.89 (match) · 22 history records