Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:36:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CF 0xcfac…ceda sports 38 markets active 5h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5 (+9%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate71%27W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$2
other 9% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +6.8% -3.4% 69% 64% -2.6%
≤30d 38 +7.3% -2.9% 71% 63% -2.0%
≤90d 38 +7.3% -2.9% 71% 63% -2.0%
all 38 +7.3% -2.9% 71% 63% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 63% -2.0%
10% -12.2% 61% -11.4%
15% -20.7% 45% -19.9%
20% -28.4% 26% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses27 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage7d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $1 $0 +4%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +54%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1 +$1 +50%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $1 +$2 +172%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1 +$1 +64%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +54%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $1 +$1 +78%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $1 $0 +35%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1 +$2 +204%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$2 +78%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 $0 +11%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $3 +$1 +45%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $1 $0 +27%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1 $0 +47%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1 $0 +47%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $1 $0 +49%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$1 +54%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $3 +$1 +29%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $1 +$1 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +55%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 +$1 +29%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 96¢ $1 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 90¢ $1 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 12h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 13h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $1 25h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 99¢ $2 29h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $1 29h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $1 29h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $3 30h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 25¢ $1 30h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 18¢ $1 31h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 36¢ $1 31h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 92¢ $2 32h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 55¢ $1 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 83¢ $1 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $2 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 87¢ $1 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 63¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $1 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 55¢ $1 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $1 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 66¢ $3 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $3 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 55¢ $2 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 68¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records