Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:45:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CF 0xcfad…66e2 crypto 462 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,309 (-15%) realized −$8,004 · open −$305
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate57%260W / 200L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day41.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$527now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$178
7 days−$228
14 days−$228
30 days−$228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$5,289
other 2% −$305
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -21.7% -29.1% 40% 40% -27.1%
≤30d 48 -21.7% -29.1% 40% 40% -27.1%
≤90d 460 -11.9% -20.3% 57% 48% -18.7%
all 460 -11.9% -20.3% 57% 48% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.3% 48% -18.7%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 35% -26.5%
15% -34.9% 28% -33.6%
20% -41.3% 23% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$88 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$527
Realized−$8,004
Unrealized−$305
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses260 / 200
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)460 / 462
History coverage73d ⚠
Avg bet$116
Trades / day41.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 460 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $832 $527 −$305 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 139 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$46 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$42 +81%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$42 +81%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$6 -60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -92%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$8 -78%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$5 -47%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$6 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +80%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$8 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +86%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$7 -67%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$7 -70%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$6 -59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$7 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$6 -20%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$11 -37%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$15 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$10 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 16 $30 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 16 $38 +$12 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $52 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $2 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $1 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $2 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $1 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $2 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $4 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $4 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $526.82 · official $526.82 (match) · 3500 history records