Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:46:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CF 0xcfad…3ca2 sports 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$278 (-5%) realized −$252 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%23W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$279
7 days−$77
14 days+$337
30 days−$329
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$145
other 11% −$218
tech 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -1.6% -11.0% 47% 47% -14.7%
≤30d 47 -8.6% -17.3% 49% 47% -14.9%
≤90d 47 -8.6% -17.3% 49% 47% -14.9%
all 47 -8.6% -17.3% 49% 47% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 47% -14.9%
10% -25.2% 47% -23.0%
15% -32.4% 45% -30.5%
20% -39.1% 38% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$94 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized−$252
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses23 / 24
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions10
Markets (closed)47 / 58
History coverage28d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $13 $36 +$23 (+179%)
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 54¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+24%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Over 58¢ 22¢ $70 $26 −$44 (-63%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $25 $17 −$8 (-33%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-30%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $266 +$100 +38%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$28 +109%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $276 +$151 +54%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $111 −$109 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $352 −$183 -52%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $28 +$25 +90%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $5 +$7 +144%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $31 +$25 +79%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $30 +$25 +83%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $99 −$97 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 +$58 +226%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $26 −$26 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$28 +109%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $26 +$25 +93%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $173 −$30 -17%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $35 −$35 -99%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $56 +$50 +90%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $109 +$101 +93%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 09 $305 +$102 +33%
Zcash's Orchard pool confirmed exploited? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $170 +$79 +46%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 07 $152 +$75 +49%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $56 +$50 +90%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 05 $37 −$37 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $300 +$202 +67%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $92 +$101 +109%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 01 $619 −$612 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 30 $122 −$120 -99%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $23 −$23 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 May 30 $253 +$202 +80%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 30 $9 −$9 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 May 28 $105 −$103 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 27 $116 −$114 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 27 $149 +$100 +67%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 27 $127 +$101 +79%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 25 $156 −$154 -99%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $547 −$345 -63%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 24 $150 −$148 -99%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 May 24 $399 +$303 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 58¢ $35 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 58¢ $35 6h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 72¢ $266 21h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 43h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 22¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $25 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 52¢ $225 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 52¢ $111 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 38¢ $170 3d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ $28 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $352 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 54¢ $30 6d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $48 6d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 55¢ $31 6d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 6d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 6d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $51 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 50¢ $26 7d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 50¢ $26 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 7d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 51¢ $26 8d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 54¢ $30 8d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 49¢ $117 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $35 9d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 28¢ $5 9d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 58¢ $143 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.90 · official $142.87 · 104 history records