Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:51:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcfae…cd97 other 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$50 (-0%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate7%8W / 112L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$273per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$18
politics 26% −$10
sports 16% −$21
crypto 4% −$2
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 83 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 120 -3.7% -12.8% 7% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 2% -9.7%
10% -21.2% 2% -18.3%
15% -28.8% 2% -26.2%
20% -35.8% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×6.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)120 / 122
History coverage136d
Avg bet$273
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $272 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $294 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $43 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $34 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $214 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $231 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $239 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $260 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $246 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $777 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $412 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $246 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $240 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $701 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $231 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $218 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 13 $199 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $222 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $209 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $201 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $218 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $402 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $263 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $420 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $420 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 10 $229 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $682 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $197 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $407 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $189 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $262 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $209 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $255 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $217 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $252 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 14 $265 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $227 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $258 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $233 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $192 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 12 $224 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $440 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $518 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 25h
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $39 28h
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $39 30h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $26 30h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $26 2d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 3d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 3d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 5d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 16d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 24d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 24d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 25d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 25d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $214 25d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $214 27d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $230 27d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $231 28d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $239 28d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $239 28d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $260 28d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $260 29d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $246 29d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $246 29d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $233 31d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $233 32d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $207 32d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $207 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.95 · official $64.95 (match) · 387 history records